Following a substantial defeat at the July 29, 2007 election polls, popular support for Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Prime Minister (PM) Shinzo Abe has fallen. Limping with a 22 percent approval rating, PM Abe and his cabinet face calls to resign amidst a lack of political progress and social blunders concerning Japan’s military history.
Despite LDP’s near-domination of Japanese politics under former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, public approval of the ruling conservatives is expected to decline. PM Abe’s political future remains uncertain along with the longevity of his term in office.
Delusions of Grandeur
Upon entering the position in September 2006, PM Abe’s first order of business was reinvigorating national pride, by which he hoped to promote Japan not only as the economic regional power it has grown into since the Second World War, but also as a potent military force. In doing so, however, the Prime Minister managed to anger some Japanese intellectuals and women’s groups by casting doubt that sexual slaves known as, “comfort women,” existed during World War II. On August 6, 2007, the United States passed a resolution requesting the Japanese government issue an official apology.
PM Abe is also spearheading a government drive to transform Japan’s Self Defense Forces into a regional, deployable capability. Further, contrasting with a popular pacifist outcry, PM Abe continues to redefine Japan’s role in Iraq and Afghanistan as more of a “hands-on” participant.
PM Abe’s shortcomings may be highlighted by his inability to emerge from the shadow of the previous Prime Minister. Junichiro Koizumi, a charismatic leader and immensely popular politician, made substantial headway on reducing government debt and revamping the economy. Thus far, the legacy of Koizumi’s economic reforms have not carried over with his successor. With rising crime rates in major cities and allegations of government corruption, domestic policy for the Abe government has struggled.
Voters Respond
Flagging public support began handicapping the LDP-lead government prior to the July 29, 2007 House of Councilors (upper house) elections, however poll results indicate the worst is yet to come. Approval ratings for the Prime Minister and his Cabinet plummeted 12 points following an overwhelming victory for the opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). DPJ currently wields a close majority in the upper house.
Although conservative still control the government by a substantial majority in the more powerful House of Representatives (lower house), recent elections demonstrate that control of the Diet (Parliament) could soon change hands. Pressure continues to mount on the LDP and PM Abe to call snap elections for the lower house.
Outlook for the LDP
Amidst declining public support and poor results at the polls, LDP may be forced to make significant changes to maintain its position of power. Ultimately Prime Minister Abe’s resignation may be the best solution. With various ministers and cabinet members jumping ship amid scandals or a more general desire for disassociation, Abe’s days in office could be numbered. His refusal to bow out will likely damage the LDP’s chances of maintaining control after the next elections.