Although Argentina’s presidential elections remain two months away, current first lady and senator, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner appears poised to succeed her husband, Nestor Kirchner, as president of Argentina.
Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has been a rising star in Argentina’s political arena since 1995 when she was elected to represent Santa Cruz in the Senate and in 1997 in the Chamber of Deputies. In 2001 she won again a seat in the Senate. In 2005 she was the main candidate for Senator of the Front for Victory faction of her party in the province of Buenos Aires. She maintains an impressive resume that is fitting of any potential presidential candidate, holding national office as a well-known senator when her husband was an undiscovered governor from the remote province of Santa Cruz. Fernandez provided the main backbone to her husband’s successful campaign for the presidency of Argentina in 2003, against two other Justicialist candidates and several other competitors.
As First Lady she has acted as her husband’s primary itinerant ambassador and will likely demonstrate an internationalist political agenda if elected president, an area that her husband chose to largely ignore during his tenure.
Opinion Polls Suggest Easy Victory
Following her official presidential candidacy announcement in mid-July, opinion polls showed Fernández gaining the support of some 50-60 percent of decided voters, holding a more than 30 percentage point lead over two other leading presidential contenders.
The continuing popularity of Nestor Kirchner will likely propel his wife into the presidency. Kirchner maintains large approval ratings largely through his administration’s handling of the Argentine economy, achieving an annual average growth of 9 percent in the past four years, helping the country recover from its economic collapse in 2001-2002. Unemployment continues to fall, decreasing from a high of 21 percent to 10 percent, while poverty levels continue to drop, maintaining a 27 percent poverty level from a previous high of over 50 percent in 2002.
Kirchner’s Economic and Political Difficulties
However, despite these successes Kirchner’s government has experienced a series of economic and political setbacks in recent months.
Continued fuel shortages have produced prolonged blackouts, resulting in limited factory closures and layoffs. Moreover shortages of compress natural gas—the primary fuel for the vast majority of taxis and trucks in Argentina—has resulted in numerous protests by both taxi and truck drivers. The current fuel shortage has occurred during Argentina’s first cold spell of 2007, forcing the Kirchner government to halve natural gas exports in order to provide additional gas to Argentine residents while simultaneously arranging for energy purchases from Brazil. The current fuel shortage is largely blamed on Kirchner’s populist energy policy, sapping private incentive to invest in infrastructure improvements needed to boost production.
In addition to fuel shortages, Argentina has recently faced shortages of some agricultural goods, including milk and meat, a result of continued government imposed price controls. However, despite these price controls and subsequent food and fuel shortages, inflation continues to rise. The government’s official figure remains 9 percent over the past 12 months; however, outside economic sources suggest the price of staples rose by 15.4 percent between December and May. The Kirchner administration has been accused of knowingly falsifying price date to hide actual inflationary numbers.
Political Corruption Scandals
President Kirchner’s administration has suffered from high-profile corruption charges brought against his former energy minister, Felisa Miceli, following the discovery of US $240,000 in a cupboard located in her office. The scandal forced the resignation of Miceli, which occurred just three days before Fernandez was scheduled to launch her campaign for the presidency.
Allegations of numerous illegal payoffs, particularly in the public works and government contracts, have plagued Kirchner’s government since early 2005. Evidence surrounding the possible payment of US $25 million in illegal payments to government officials involved in the construction of a natural gas pipeline surfaced in March 2007 and may be a factor in President Kirchner not running for a second term.
Fernandez Remains Front Runner
Despite these apparent economic and political setbacks to the current Kirchner administration, the Fernandez campaign has suffered little declines in the polls, largely due to the lack of a viable opposition candidate. Only two candidates, Roberto Lavagna, former economic minister under President Kirchner, and Elisa Carrio, a leftist anti-corruption candidate have achieved double figures in current polls. Neither candidate currently presents a formidable challenge to Fernandez.
Political Agenda Shifts
Fernandez will bring far different political priorities to the Argentine presidency than her husband who focused primarily on populist domestic issues, while limiting Argentina’s international commitments. Fernandez will lure foreign investors through her personnel contacts developed through numerous official trips abroad, while strengthening Argentina’s relationship with the US that has been strained during her husbands four years in office.
Fernandez will seek to limit Argentina’s relationship with Venezuela that is largely responsible for Argentina’s chilled relations with the US. A stronger relationship with the US will encourage US investors to assist the country in restructuring the country’s US $7 billion debt. Domestically, Fernandez will appeal to middle class voters that have grown alienated with President Kirchner’s populist political agenda through her free-market oriented economic priorities.
