After providing 38 years of operational support to police units in Northern Ireland, the British military will close its longest running continuous operation, “Operation Banner.” As of midnight on July 31, 2007, the historic operation comes to a close nearly two months following a monumental power-sharing agreement to restore self-rule in the province. The decision to close “Operation Banner” is a symbolic milestone on the path to peace in the long-troubled province.
As we previously reported, on March 26, 2007 leaders of Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and foe Sinn Fein signed a historic power-sharing deal. Ian Paisley and Gerry Adams, seated next to each other refused to shake hands, but confirmed in a follow-on press conference that the two parties would equally share control of the province. The plan took affect on May 8, 2007.
We believe the deal struck in March 2007 will likely cause hard-line Irish Republican Army (IRA) splinter groupings angered by Sinn Fein’s perceived acquiescence of power to reassert their violent campaign in Northern Ireland and further seek to undermine the peace process.
Additionally, the decision to abandon “Operation Banner” will likely encourage like-minded militants to employ violence in their efforts to disrupt the nascent peace agreement.
Operation Banner
Initially deployed in 1969, the military’s official mission was to assist resident police forces defeat of indigenous terrorism and maintain order in an effort to return Northern Ireland to so-called “normality.” At the height of violence, referred to as, “The Troubles,” approximately 30,000 soldiers patrolled Northern Ireland’s residential streets. At first pleased with the arrival of the military, residents soon turned against them, amid accusations of bias in the conflict. Stationed troops further found themselves targets of the brazen terror organization.
In 1972, paratroopers killed 13 men during a civil rights march in an incident known as “Bloody Sunday.” The last soldier to be killed during “The Troubles” was shot at a roadblock in 1997.
As of August 1, 2007, “Operation Banner,” the British army’s longest running operation, will conclude. During its 38 years, the operation saw more than 300,000 personnel deployed, over 6,000 injured and approximately 760 killed in action by IRA paramilitaries during Northern Ireland’s violent period.
At the conclusion of the operation all that will remain is a 5,000–strong garrison. Additionally, security—which was “Operation Banner’s” primary function—will be handed to the resident police force.
The decision to conclude the mission is timely. The May 2007 peace accord brought a welcome relief as the military faces ongoing logistical difficulties due to near capacity 7,000 and 5,500-strong deployments in Afghanistan and Iraq respectively.
IRA Radicals Persist
In 2005, the paramilitary IRA officially renounced violence and dismantled its arsenal. These actions were only minimally successful. To date, radical members continue to wage a violent campaign in the province. Angered by Sinn Fein’s non-violent stance, radical IRA members have since joined splinter organizations, many of which are sought after for their attempts to derail the current peace process.
Despite the most recent power-sharing deal signed by the DUP and Sinn Fein, hard-line IRA members representing two radical break away factions, the Real IRA and the Continuity IRA continue to attempt to derail the plan and specifically revert Sinn Fein to its days of violence.
Although both the Real IRA and Continuity IRA lack sustainable support bases, both garner marginal success by employing less expensive modes of attack such as small-scale firebombing and improvised explosive device (IED) campaigns.
• As recently as July 18, 2007, suspected dissident IRA members detonated an IED near the highly trafficked cross-border Belfast-Dublin railway line. Fortunately, no one was injured in the attack. Additionally, in conjunction with the IED detonation, British army explosives experts successfully dismantled a second incendiary device that had apparently failed to detonate in the area.
Spoilers Will Likely Continue Their Efforts
As we previously reported, despite promising gains made in recent months to achieve viable peace in Northern Ireland, spoilers continue to exist and pose a significant challenge to the nascent peace process.
Specifically, the Real IRA contends its primary objective is to disrupt the lives of residents and prevent the British and Sinn Fein from garnering long-lasting agreements. We believe despite waning popular support, disaffected IRA members will seek to ratchet-up their attacks.
Additionally, the decision to abandon “Operation Banner,” and the resultant reduced security capabilities and response may further encourage radical IRA members to employ violence in the province.