On July, 30, 2007, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice confirmed rumors that the US is in the midst of signing the largest US military aid package for the Middle East since the Carter Administration. In response to recent Iranian arms purchases from Russia—and of Russian weapons earmarked for Syria, the Gulf region is projected to receive a $20 billion arms package from the US, which is expected to, “include advanced weaponry, missile guidance systems, upgraded fighter jets and naval ships.”
After objecting to the sale of ‘Smart Bombs’ to Saudi Arabia in November 2006, Israel negotiated a parallel arms package effecting a 25 percent increase ($2.4 billion a year to $3 billion a year) in US military aid to Israel over the next 10 years. In total, Israel is slated to receive $30 billion in military aid and Egypt $13 billion in military aid over the next ten years.
However, regardless of the hype, the spiraling effect of military buildup holds more hope of increasing fear than preventing future conflict.
The Gulf: Interference and Mishaps
Bringing an end to the US’s Twin Pillar Policy (arming Saudi Arabia and Iran to counter Iraq), the Iranian Revolution provided the US with two important lessons: first, never arm leaders who lack domestic support; and second, Iran prefers to use clandestine tactics to subvert adversary regimes. When the Shah was overthrown in Iran in 1979, the US was presented with the conundrum of reevaluating its foreign policy in the Middle East to account for its largest recipient of military aid being overthrown by an enemy government.
Like the former Shah of Iran, the royal family of Saudi Arabia is considered illegitimate and corrupt by the majority of its constituents. The Saud family keeps a tight reign on its critics by implementing an aggressive media censorship program. Nonetheless, the Wahaabi Islamists in Saudi Arabia amassed widespread public backing through education and outreach programs. Teaching purity of the Islamic tenets, the Wahaabis and their followers resent that Mecca, Islam’s holiest city is governed by a royal family that is known for its frivolous lifestyle. Should the Wahaabis successfully overthrown the Saudi monarchy, the new government in Saudi Arabia would undoubtedly be governed by an anti-Western, Islamist regime.
Secondly, despite Khomeini’s clear military advantage in the early 1980s over the Gulf States, Iran chose to subvert the Gulf’s Sunni regimes clandestinely rather than declare open war—the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG) was highly active in the 1980s in its efforts to ignite the Shia population against the ruling Sunni regimes in Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. Likewise, Iran funds Islamic extremist groups such as Hizballah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) to fight Israel as its proxy rather than confronting Israel directly.
Iran chose the tactic of clandestine subversion because it is cognizant of its vulnerabilities in the region. Building upon a history of Arab-Persian conflict, Iran—the sole Persian state among Arab nations—is regarded with suspicion by its Arab counterparts. In fact, even common religion proved powerless to persuade Iraq’s Arab Shia population to side with Iran during the 30 year Iran-Iraq War; who instead fought alongside their Arab Sunni brethren against Iran.
Spiraling Up…or Business as Usual
A buildup of weapons in Iran is more about defense than offense, more about appearances than tactics. The spiraling military buildup will give birth to more arms deals, but will not succeed in providing security to a volatile region that less and less relies on conventional warfare to fight its battles.
Though the increased armament in the Middle East will undoubtedly make everyone increasingly on edge, it will not change regional behavioral patterns. Iran will continue to pursue nuclear weapons capability while funding insurgencies throughout the Middle East. Saudi Arabia will remain wary of the Iraq government and Israel will persist in its interests in the Occupied Palestinian Territories. In short, it will be business as usual.
