Attacks on oil pipelines, specifically against a state’s petroleum and gas sectors, is a tactic often used by Sunni terrorists in Iraq, Nigeria’s Niger Delta militants and Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) terrorists. However, the July 5 and July 10, 2007, bombing attacks targeting pipelines belonging to Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) in the north-central Mexican state of Baijo by suspected Marxist guerrillas from the Military Zone Command of the People’s Revolutionary Army – a splinter group within the Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR) – demonstrated an extensive knowledge of Mexico’s energy infrastructure and an operating maturity not previously seen within Mexico’s limited leftist rebel movements.
A subsequent investigation into the EPR attacks by both Mexican and US security officials revealed the use of sophisticated plastic explosives that destroyed the shutoff valves along several pipelines that were designed for statewide distribution of oil and gas. A report by McClathy Newspapers indicates the bombers were familiar with the workings of PEMEX pipelines, knowing which side of the shutoff valve they should strike, ensuring that crude oil could not flow to a nearby pipeline or natural gas flow to foreign distributors or Mexican industrial firms.
Effectiveness of Systems Disruption Attacks
The attack forced the temporary closure of some 1200 factories in several Mexican industrial cities, including factories operated by Honda Motor Co., Kellogg Co.’s, The Hershey Co., Nissan Motor Co., and Grupo Modelo SA, because of the lack of natural gas supplies. Total business losses were estimated at more than 70 million pesos ($6.4 million) a day, the daily newspaper Excelsior reported. The disruption affected PEMEX clients in the industry-rich city of Guadalajara, capital of the western state of Jalisco; the industrial city of Leon, in the central state of Guanajuato; and the central states of Queretaro and Aguascalientes.
Conspiracy Theories Within Mexican Press
Since the attacks in early July, numerous conspiracy theories have developed within the local Mexican press, largely due to lack of previous similar, sophisticated-pipeline bombing attacks by Marxist guerrillas. In two separate communiqués released shortly after the twin bombings, EPR guerrillas claimed responsibility for the attacks, calling the pipeline bombings self-defense and demanding the release of two missing members.
However, the EPR has never perpetrated attacks against the Mexican state that far north. The EPR’s historical base of operations is hundreds of miles away in the impoverished southern states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Oaxaca, and Chiapas. In addition the EPR has undergone a series of internal divisions in recent years, demonstrated by the apparent creation of so-called splinter groups within the EPR, likely limiting the ability of the EPR to stage such an effective and highly developed systems disruption attack.
The most probable perpetrator being identified within the Mexican press, other than the EPR, is Mexico’s powerful drug cartels that are currently being targeted by Mexican President Felipe Calderon and the Mexican military. Mexico’s drug cartels possess both the intent and capability to conduct such economically devastating attacks against the state oil industry. Although they likely lack the explosive knowledge, they have the ability to hire outside explosive experts and the ability to acquire detailed knowledge of PEMEX’s pipeline system from disaffected and underpaid PEMEX employees.
Moreover, the pipeline bombings have forced President Calderon to allocate significant security personnel to guard Mexico’s pipelines from further attacks. Some 5,000 troops belonging to the recently created United Forces for Federal Support to guard energy infrastructure were deployed throughout the country. However, the force is unlikely to provide sufficient resources to adequately protect PEMEX’s 60,000 kilometers of oil and gas pipelines. Their deployment will merely withhold these forces from other more important assignments, including engaging Mexico’s drug cartels.
Others being accused include less probable contenders including Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, a known opponent of Mexico’s Felipe Calderon, and a radical wing of the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), whose candidate, Lopez Obrador, was a bitter loser in last year’s presidential elections. However, neither theory seems likely at this time. Security experts and government officials in both Mexico and the US have found no evidence indicating Chavez is bankrolling the radical leftist movement in Mexico nor that Mexico’s oil unions, which formerly led the oil-rich south in support of Lopez Obrador’s candidacy, would conduct such a devastating attack on their means of employment.
EPR Remains Front-Runner
Currently the most likely attackers remain the Military Zone Command of the People’s Revolutionary Army. Furthering this conclusion, guerrillas from the EPR attacked a jail under construction in southern Mexico on July 28, 2007, firing shots and threatening watchmen. Local media published photos on Sunday showing the assailants had spray-painted the jail’s walls with the letters “EPR.”
However, the involvement of some outside force, possibly Mexico’s drug cartels or other leftists currently protesting in the southern state of Oaxaca over various issues, in collaboration with the EPR remains possible, albeit unlikely.
Impact on US Oil Supplies
Although the specific perpetrators of the July 2007 attacks are currently unknown, targeted attacks on PEMEX’s oil and gas pipelines in Baijo could indicate future near-term threats to US oil supplies via the Mexican oil industry. Declining investment in PEMEX has hampered Mexico’s oil production, resulting in continued declines in PEMEX’s oil output.
However, a sustained and concentrated campaign by leftist guerrillas or drug cartels on Mexico’s oil industry will result in price hikes for US consumers and further reduce Mexico’s oil supplies to the US, which are already down some 13 percent in the first four months of this year.
