Since the March 2007 constitutional referendum, there has been steady chatter among both politicians and civil servants regarding the likelihood of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s son taking over the presidency in 2012. The issue has stirred up a mix of emotions across socioeconomic classes, as well as government divisions. Although Gamal Mubarak has repeatedly rejected intentions to bid for the presidency, his recent economic innovations, fast-track political career, and far-reaching sponsorships suggest otherwise.
The Connected Candidate
Egypt’s ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) will hold elections for a party president – a post held by President Mubarak since he came to power in 1981 – during its annual conference in November 2007. The unprecedented ceremony is seen as a move geared towards offering Gamal Mubarak the country’s top job.
In order to qualify for candidacy, members must secure signatures from 20 percent of the 5,500-member general assembly. The difficulty in securing these signatures has reminded critics about the hurdles set in place during the referendum vote in March 2007, when the majority of the constitutional amendments passed strengthened the presidency while effectively weakening Parliament (Previous Report).
Currently, Gamal Mubarak, a 43-year old former banker is the official spokesman and assistant secretary-general for the NDP, as well as the head of the Policies Committee. He has established many strong, mutually beneficial relationships since he was first appointed as head of committee in 2002. The policy-making body is largely composed of prominent businessmen, responsible for setting the NDP’s political agenda. In fact, it was closely involved in drafting the amendments for March’s referendum.
Despite repeatedly denying any “dynastic” ambitions, Gamal has catapulted himself onto the Egyptian political scene by promoting liberal economic reforms, such as an overhaul of the tax system and wide-ranging slashes in tariffs. He has become a symbol of a new “technocratic” elite in Egypt, leading the charge towards trade liberalization and Egypt’s integration into the global economy.
Winning “Hearts and Minds”
Although Gamal would be supported internationally, and especially by the US, which has a strong positive relationship with the young politician, he would face strong public opposition at home. As the mastermind behind his father’s campaign in Egypt’s first multi-party presidential election in 2005, Gamal would have to focus a significant part of his campaign on differentiating himself from his father, whose regime has been deeply criticized for the past 25 years.
Tainted by NDP’s near certain meddling in the June 2007 Upper House Parliamentary elections, which resulted in the arrests of over 800 Muslim Brotherhood (MB) members, Gamal will have to face reconciling with MB members and their growing resentment towards what they see as an “anti-Islamic” regime (Previous Report, Previous Report).
Obstacles Ahead
Additionally, a degree of uncertainty as to the role of Egypt’s powerful armed forces has accompanied this idea of succession.
We believe some Egyptian Generals with the the country’s discreet but powerful military institutions would oppose the appointment of Gamal to the presidency. Many in the military believes Gamal has, “nothing to offer other than being the president’s son,” and that it is only the powerful members of the business community who will benefit from his policies.
Gamal Mubarak’s lack of a popular base and uncertainty regarding the amount of support a civilian could expect to receive from the military establishment are the primary obstacles on Gamal’s path to presidency.
