Jean Berchmans Ndayshimiye, military leader of the last rebel group in Burundi, escaped from his guards in Bujumbura on July 22, 2007. The National Liberation Forces (FNL), Ndayshimiye’s rebel group, freed him by attacking his South African guards during a carefully orchestrated attack.
The FLN is the last rebel group comprised of Hutus, who form a majority in Burundi, to refuse to sign a peace deal with the government. Six other Hutu groups have all signed a ceasefire deal that was agreed to in Tanzania in September 2006. Ndayshimiye was leading a 15-person delegation to discuss implementing the fragile cease-fire agreement that was initially brokered by Tanzania, Uganda, and South Africa. The FNL is also the only rebel group that has not signed the peace accords of 2000 that resulted in the 2005 power sharing government.
FNL Regroups
Recent actions by the FNL have Burundi officials worried they are preparing for a renewal of hostilities. In addition to the escape of Ndayshimiye, the FNL are reported to have recently increased recruiting efforts. The FNL are believed to have between 4,000 and 6,000 fighters already, mostly based around the capital of Bujumbura. Also, the FNL is believed to be rearming. Furthermore, rebels are believed to be responsible for the assassination of two police officers in February 2007, the only violation of the cease-fire since it was agreed to in September. Two days after Ndayshimiye fled Bujumbura, three other senior members of NLF also disappeared.
Jacques Bigirimana, part of the FNL delegation in Bujumbura, denies the FNL are preparing for a renewal of hostilities, instead insisting that the FNL is committed to the peace process. Pasteur Habimana, a Tanzania-based spokesperson for the FNL, accused Burundi President Pierre Nkurunziza for attempting to restart hostilities, not the FNL.
The FNL is seeking a regional summit organized by South Africa to facilitate dialogue between President Nkurunziza and FNL leader Agathon Rwasa. Without the regional summit, the FNL is refusing to sign the cease-fire. Among the issues that remain unresolved are the release of FNL prisoners, an accord to revamp the army, and a political agreement that defines the FNL role in state institutions.
As a result of recent FNL actions, Burundi’s Joint Verification and Monitoring Committee has been forced to suspend its work. The committee oversees the implementation of the truce signed in September 2006. The committee is comprised of 28 rebel representatives, all of whom have returned to the bush, resulting in further fears of a renewal of hostilities.
Looming Hostilities
Due to the recent actions by the FNL, we believe the international community and regional states, particularly Uganda, Tanzania, and South Africa, should facilitate political dialogue between the rebels and the government. Due to its history of over thirty years of ethnic tensions between Tutsi and Hutu, including a 14-year conflict started in 1993 that left 300,000 dead, we remain concerned that a return to violence could lead to large-scale violence between the two ethnic groups.
Based on recent reports indicating that government military forces and rebel forces have deployed large numbers of fighters in two insurgent strongholds west of Bujumbura, we believe the situation in Burundi could deteriorate into renewed conflict without political progress occurring in the near-term.
