Recent reports suggest there is a significant number of Saudis fighting alongside Islamist militants in Iraq. Given Saudi Arabia’s efforts to emerge as a regional leader, such reporting has tarnished the Kingdom’s image.
• We believe that the high level of Saudi militants fighting in Iraq will damage Saudi Arabia’s aspirations to lead and orchestrate present and future Middle East affairs, a position traditionally held by Egypt.
• In the near to min term, we suspect Saudi Arabia will engage in police actions, rounding up suspected terrorists training to fight in Iraq.
Difficult Position for Saudi Arabia
According to Iraq’s National Security Advisor Mowaffak al-Rubaie, Iraq has tired 160 Saudis for their involvement in violence last week. Further, US military figures estimate that 45 percent of all foreign militants targeting US troops, Iraqi civilians and security forces are from the Kingdom; 15 percent are from Syria and Lebanon; and 10 percent are from North Africa. Nearly half of the 135 foreigners in US detention facilities in Iraq are Saudis and 50 percent of all Saudi fighters in Iraq are suicide bombers.
Saudi officials have downplayed the number of Saudi fighters reported by both Iraqi and US officials. In an effort to evade the spotlight, Saudi Interior Minister spokesman Gen. Mansour Turki pointed to Iran and Syria for fueling sectarian insurgency in Iraq for their support of Iraqi Shi’ite groups.
Nonetheless, Saudi Arabia has struggled with remedies to combat its nationals from crossing the closed border into Iraq or from obtaining bus or air tickets into Syria, for further entry through its desert border with Iraq. This has created tensions among major players in the Middle East, including Egypt and Jordan. Saudi’s hope to fill Egypt’s role as the region’s leader and Middle East mediator faces significant challenges.
We believe Saudi will have to dramatically increase it awareness and efforts to combat the number of fighters contributing to the foreign fighter problem in Iraq. Unless such steps are taken, Saudi Arabia will likely have to defend its credibility for the position of leadership and authority concerning Middle East conflicts.
AQAP Threat Increases
The growing number of Saudi militants in Iraq is an indication that Islamic militancy is a sustained phenomenon in the Kingdom. Proprietary sources conclude that a large number of imams at Saudi mosques call for jihad against Iraq’s Shi’ites and US forces and that the government has funded groups causing unrest in Iraq’s largely Shi’ite south.
Additionally, al-Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP), based in Saudi Arabia, has been tasked with gearing up fighters for Iraq. The group’s underground funding from prominent Saudi families has helped launch the logistics behind these fighters’ travels into Iraq or through Syria.
• However, as the government arrests extremists and beefs up security measures to combat the transfer of fighters, we remain concerned over the potential of attacks within Saudi.
Monitoring the exchange of dialogue between militants and supporters on the websites has revealed that jihadists are currently debating over the priorities of the jihad. In May 2007, a poll was posted on a prominent jihadist website that asked which is more effective for the jihad: Saudis fighting in Iraq first, or carrying out attacks in Saudi Arabia (Previous Report). At the time, the majority of participants in the poll voted for carrying out attacks in Saudi first and fighting in Iraq second. Although reports indicate the recent pressure on the Kingdom to combat such ideology may alter results.
Looking Ahead
Saudi Arabia usually keeps details about its internal affairs under wraps, especially when unfavorable to the Kingdom. In April 2007, mainstream media reported 172 terror suspects arrested in Saudi Arabia and unearthing tons of weapons, explosives, and ammunition; however, little to no follow-up media reporting has been made on the case (Previous Report).
As Saudi officials increase security measures and hunt for suspects, though they are likely to find a significant amount, we believe relatively little details will be disclosed. Saudi Arabia would be best served by combating all aspects of terrorism, including funding and logistical dimensions, in order to effectively eradicate the growing threat in the Kingdom.
