Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has problems, mostly of his own making. After an eight-year reign as President and his concomitant services as chief of the Paksitani Army, Musharraf today is walking a fine line between several Pakistani constituent groups and his primary overseas ally. Musharraf’s clumsy moves have put both this administration and possibly his life in jeopardy.
Secular Politics and Reformers
Secular political parties are angry with Musharraf for what they believe is his refusal to move toward democracy and his disregard for political constituents. This simmering sense of grievance combined with a healthy desire to be in, or return to, political power is the reason high profile politicians—particularly former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto—has expressed some interest in shoring up Musharraf in the near-term.
Many mainstream Pakistani political parties took satisfaction on July 20, 2007 when, after debating for nearly six weeks, Pakistan’s Supreme Court reinstated deposed Chief Justice Mohammed Chaudry. The decision was a victory for the secular political parties who backed the court in protest at what they regarded as an attempt to compromise judicial independence. The ruling also was noteworthy in that the Pakistani judiciary in the past rarely has confronted the military or a military-led government.
In the aftermath of the Chaudry debacle, Musharraf knows he must repair relations with secular political parties, and is gauging the damage. In mid-July he began circulating his intention to run for president again when his term expires in October, possibly without stepping down as Army chief. Last week in what appeared to be a reaction to high levels of discontent, a Karachi-based newspaper sympathetic to the president ran a story indicating Musharraf may resign from the military in December 2007 and hold elections early next year. With political patience running thin after successful mass protests following Chaudry’s dismissal, the president’s promises of future reforms are increasingly hollow.
Islamists
Islamists are also angry with Musharraf following this month’s barricade and seizure of an Islamic school, the Red Mosque, in Islamabad that killed over 100. At the same time, following the distribution of a US National Intelligence Estimate that claimed Usama Bin Ladin’s al-Qaeda terrorist network was as robust as before September 11, 2001, Musharraf took the opportunity to pressure sympathetic tribal networks in the Northwest Frontier Province. Musharraf hopes his invigorated war against Islamic extremists—a low risk strategy to focus attention away from him and onto a little-loved portion of Pakistani society—will both mollify secular and moderate politicians and possibly provoke additional US aid. The predictable result has been a backlash with protests by Islamic politicians and bombings by extremists.
Terrorists
Though quiet, there are likely numerous terrorists—affiliated with Al-Qaeda or not—that would like to see Musharraf dead for his close ties to the United States and his apparent commitment to a secular Pakistan led by the military. Musharraf has survived several attempts on his life and will likely face similar threats in the future.
The United States
One thing President Musharaf can count on is the support of the United States. Despite unflattering commentary in the NIE, Musharraf has consistently been a strong if uneven supporter of the US effort to diminish terrorism in the region, stabilize Afghanistan, and capture Usama Bin Ladin. He can count on US support for the foreseeable future; the US, appears to have relatively few other alternatives.
Outlook
While neither Musharraf nor Pakistan is at immediate risk of demise, we believe the president will face new and potentially unmanageable pressures that will not diminish. Despite challenges, he does have opportunities to transform his administration and himself. Shedding the uniform, highlighting the robust Pakistani economy, advancing his peace-maker potential with India and Afghanistan, and holding near-term elections could go a long way toward smoothing relations with neighbors, the US and most importantly a broad spectrum of Pakistani political parties. The only one who would object would be hard core Islamists, but then there’s nothing much Musharraf could do to appease this small but active community anyway.