In a swirl of activity, media reports over the course of the last two weeks swung from predictions of a summer war between Israel and Syria to an invitation from Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to have direct negotiations. In the midst of military build-ups and overtures of peace, analysts have predicted the full spectrum of possible motivations and outcomes.
In spite of all the posturing, we believe the military buildup and promises to pursue peace on both sides of the bargaining table will pass without event.
Talk of War, Then Peace
The year began with Syrian threats to reclaim the Golan Heights by force if Israel did not withdrawal its troops from the former Syrian territory, (the Golan Heights were occupied by Israel from Syria during the 1967 “Six Day War” and have since remained under Israeli control). Recently Syria has fortified its military positions along its Israel border and on July 7th withdrew soldiers from its checkpoint along the Israeli border. Questioned concerning Syria’s actions, an unnamed Ba’th official reported in a July 12, 2007 interview with The New York Sun that Syria learned from last summer’s war between Hizballah and Israel that “fighting” is more effective than peace negotiations with regard to gaining territory. Some Israeli officials considered these actions, combined with al-Assad’s call for all Syrian students studying in Lebanon to return to Syria, evidence that an attack was on the horizon.
In a response to previous Syrian requests to open negotiations with Israel under US mediation, Prime Minister Olmert delivered an invitation to President al-Assad to open direct negotiations on July 12, 2007. Calling President al-Assad’s bluff, Prime Minister Olmert said that he would meet with President al-Assad in the location of President al-Assad’s choice. Knowing, however, that President al-Assad would not meet directly without US involvement, Prime Minister Olmert stated that President al-Assad is not truly interested in negotiating with Israel, but rather wishes to talk to the US.
The Dance
Prime Minister Olmert’s invitation was followed by a flurry of activity on both sides of the Israel-Syria border. Israel’s Deputy Chief of General Staff, Major-General Moshe Kaplinsky reported that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) fortified its positions along both the Lebanese and Syrian borders as a defensive measure following the Second Lebanon War. The weapons and military personnel used to fortify Syria’s Israel border reflected a Syrian counter to Israeli’s increased presence, he said.
Regardless of the commotion stirred by both sides, neither Syria nor Israel wants to go to war. Syria may have learned from Hizballah’s guerilla tactics in the Second Lebanon War, but it is not prepared to sustain the economic setbacks and damage to its infrastructure that such a war would yield.
In fact, the Syria-Israel border is Israel’s most peaceful. This is primarily because Syria has preferred to fund Palestinian militant groups and Hizballah through which to wage its war on Israel. Even though Syria withdrew its official personnel from Lebanon in April 2006, Syria maintains its ability to influence Hizballah and supply it with weapons. It, therefore, will continue to pursue its tactic of launching proxy wars, without directly engaging Israel.
Prime Minister Olmert recognized that Syria’s invitation to negotiate was a ploy to win international support and distract from the upcoming implementation of the International Tribunal into the death of Former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiik Hariri. His call to open direct talks was delivered with the anticipation that President al-Assad would not accept.
Uninterested in war, yet unprepared for peace, a peace settlement between Israel and Syria is in the making but will not be achieved in the near-term. Israel is concerned with Syrian support of Palestinian militants, but the Syrian regime cannot afford the domestic backlash that would follow if Syria ceased its funding of these groups.
Looking Forward
This year will close without event. Tensions will remain high between Israel and its neighbors. Though Israel’s invitation to hold direct negotiations will not yield fruit, second tier and back door diplomacy will continue laying the groundwork for future peace negotiations.
In the end, there will never be peace unless Israel returns the Golan to Syria. If this is not achieved peacefully in the next two to three years, a future war is inevitable.