On July 9, 2007, the United Nations (UN) agreed to send a delegation to North Korea to observe and assist the closing of the country’s nuclear facilities. The UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) deployment will be the first in North Korea since Kim Jong Il’s government expelled regulators in 2002. Debilitating famines and an energy crisis have likely forced the North Korean government to accept international denuclearization terms in return for aid.
Closure Requirements and Schedule
IAEA representatives are scheduled to arrive in Pyongyang immediately following delivery of fuel aid sometime prior to July 15, 2007. In addition, neighboring South Korea has agreed to supply the North with 400,000 tons of rice, 50,000 of which is set to be delivered on July 20, 2007, via a newly-opened rail system connecting the two countries.
North Korea’s primary reactor at the Yongbyon facility will be the focus for IAEA inspectors once the UN regulating mission commences. IAEA chief, Mohamed ElBaradei, estimates the operation will take approximately two weeks to complete. However, plans to indefinitely position two monitors on site have also been approved.
Ongoing Military Concerns
North Korea’s military buildup continues to be a significant concern for regional and international actors. In 2007, Pyongyang successfully test-fired new inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBM) and short-range missiles. Although underground nuclear tests provided inconclusive results, North Korea remains a substantial threat. The United States remains concerned of the government’s nuclear capability claims.
The US and Japan continue to explore defense options in the region, having recently deployed Patriot Advanced Capability 3 Systems on Japanese islands to intercept missiles launched from the peninsula. Additionally, US Navy Aegis vessels are fitted with the Standard Missile family (SM2 and SM3) of interceptors to address any threat from the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan.
Despite North Korea’s claim that it maintains missile defense structures, it is widely believed these systems are non-existent. However, reports indicate the government is actively seeking a state-of-the-art, independent missile defense system. Offensively, Pyongyang continues to field the short-range Hwasong 5 SCUD missiles and long-range Taepodong series missiles.
Outlook
Although UN estimates for dismantling North Korea’s nuclear program are initially positive, the long-term success of the mission will be determined by Kim Jong Il and the government’s willingness to cooperate with international bodies and in six-party talks with Russia, China, Japan, the United States, and South Korea. While its major research and plutonium-production facilities are scheduled to close, North Korea’s alignment with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is expected to be a long-term goal.
Funding for UN operations in North Korea continues to be a concern. Although South Korea and the United States have pledged a significant portion of the funds, IAEA officials believe the UN-approved budget of 295 million euros may be inadequate for the mission.
Despite budgetary and long-term concerns, the near-term North Korean threat is expected to diminish. US Department of State (DoS) officials remain optimistic following talks with Pyongyang, and have set a process in motion to formally end the US Korean War via peace accord by the end of 2007. Although normalized relations on the Korean peninsula remain a distant possibility, denuclearization of the Kim Jong Il regime and internal food and fuel crises have significantly reduced North Korea’s status as a regional threat.
