Kyrgyzstan’s first post-Soviet government’s autocratic, corrupt, and moribund system finally failed in 2005. Pro-democracy movements, which inspired the so-called Kyrgystan “Tulip Revolution,” in 2005, resulted in the ouster of long-term Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev. However, stability and prosperity have not returned to Kyrgyzstan despite the current government’s pledge to do so under the leadership of current President Kurmanbek Bakiyev. President Bakiyev came into office pledging major reforms. Yet just over a year in office, mass protests erupted against him for being to slow to institute reforms and the Kyrgyzstan government went into a state of chaos in November of 2006 (Previous Report).
Earlier in the year, Parliamentary opposition members pressed Bakiyev to accept a constitutional proposal limiting Presidential powers. In light of the protests and pressure, he agreed to back a version of the constitutional reform. However, Bakiyev managed to restore many of the Presidential powers a short time later.
The man who was once his Prime Minister and is now in opposition to the government, Felix Kulov, has become one of Bakiyev’s harshest critics and major competitors. If early elections were held, he would be one of the prime candidates for President.
Reformist/Hero/Opportunist
Felix Kulov, a former Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan has been a fixture in Kyrgyz politics for years. He has been a provincial governor, national security minister, interior minister, vice-president, Mayor of Bishkek, and his last political position albeit a brief one as the acting Prime Minister. Kulov has also been a political activist for a number of years, and achieved hero status when he was jailed on what was believed to be politically motivated charges by the previous regime for his opposition viewpoints. Kulov was released from prison when the government fell in March 2005. He was also a founding member of the Ar-Namys (Dignity) Party, formed in 1999 as an opposition movement. He was a leading figure of the opposition movement in the Tulip Revolution and was at the forefront of Presidential candidates in the 2005 elections.
Although he had a great deal of popular support in Bishkek, he agreed to run on the same ticket as current President Kurmanabek Bakiyev, with the understanding he would become Prime Minister if Bakiyev succeeded in his Presidential bid. At first he was a firm supporter of Bakiyev, but with the political turmoil surrounding the government including an increasingly tempestuous relationship between Parliament and the President, after two rejected nominations of Kulov for Prime Minister, Bakiyev did not nominate Kulov a third time.
While Bakiyev was busy trying to stave of his removal from authority and appease opposition gripes, there has also been speculation that he could have pushed the Prime Minister issue for Kulov had he chosen to do so. In other words, President Bakiyev did not want a strong charismatic leader in the Prime Minister’s office to counter him.
Politics, Corruption and Dissatisfaction
After receiving little support from the Bakiyev government, Kulov became part of the new opposition movement, which has been very critical of the Bakiyev government. However, there are a number of opposition members who are suspicious of Kulov’s motivation and sincerity, as he did not previously back the opposition. He is also viewed with some suspicion on his positions now and his activities while in government.
For example, Kulov withdrew support for the World Bank/IMF “Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative,” an extremely sensitive issue in Kyrgyzstan. Many in the country believe the debt relief program would be akin to selling out resources and acknowledging the poverty status of the country. However, it seemed Kulov played both sides of the issue when it was politically expedient. In addition, many wonder if Kulov knew about all the wrongdoing in the Bakiyev Administration, and are concerned at his lack of addressing it when he was in a position of authority.
Kulov also founded a new movement, the United Front for a Worthy Future for Kyrgyzstan, which was formed in February 2007 criticizing the Bakiyev government. The movement called for early Presidential elections and orchestrated large-scale demonstrations in April of 2007 (Previous Report). The government claimed that opposition groups were seeking power and were trying to orchestrate a coup, a claim they all deny. Kulov in true political largesse also publicly called for authorities to arrest him in exchange for the release of opposition group members arrested. However, it is unlikely that the government would want to make Kulov a “political prisoner” again, elevating his hero status further.
Although the April 2007 protests were large, they failed to bring about another Tulip Revolution and simply were not on par with the 2005 protests. Opposition groups are more fractured today than they were two years ago when there was a common goal and enemy.
Felix Kulov simply has not regained that level of support. President Bakiyev has managed to tentatively hold onto power once again, but his ability to lead has been challenged on several occasions in barely two years in office. The person still most likely to pose a challenge to him is Felix Kulov. Kulov also realizes that now that he no longer has a government position, he needs to make his own news. One area where he has stirred up some controversy is his proposal to organize a national referendum on a Kyrgyz-Russian Confederation. The justification for such a union, according to Kulov, is that it would help temper the North-South divide in Kyrgyzstan, reduce economic problems, and shore up border security. Russia is not warm to this idea, as a confederation would not really benefit Moscow, and neither is Kyrgyzstan, at least for the time being.
External Relations
It would be easy to dismiss this controversial idea as the last grasp at the political spotlight for Felix Kulov. However, it would seem that Kulov is also thinking along the lines of political expediency. Russia has always been a historical partner, however, any relationship with an outside power like the United States has been more uneasy. Kulov’s pro-Russian stance is probably an effort to increase his own political standing. He may be trying to acquire external backing, although in the case of Russia, this does not appear to be working.
In addition, there is a growing anti-American discontent pervading Kyrgyzstan especially over the US airbase in Bishkek. Recently, controllers at Manas Airport allegedly refused to handle US planes. A Kyrgyz citizen was shot by a US airman last year and Parliament also debated aning the US airbase lease. Rent for the airbase also increased dramatically. Manas is a crucial asset in Central Asia for US military operations in the region, especially as other states in the region are hesitant to allow the US base access.
Further adding to tensions was the expulsion of two US diplomats for inappropriate contacts with Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs). It is certainly possible that Kulov could start stirring up the anti-US sentiment for his own political gains if his track record is anything to go by, but so could President Bakiyev.
Future
Felix Kulov may have expended his political capital. However, he has occupied almost every position in the Kyrgyz government except for the Presidency. It is likely that this is his endgame and his opposition movements are a means to an end to gain power in the country.
President Bakiyev is hanging by a thread in his political life and has just survived the latest political crises. Unless things in the country improve, the people may start looking elsewhere for leadership and it is likely that Felix Kulov will only be too happy to oblige.
