On June 26, 2007, a roadside bomb in south Lebanon killed six United Nations (UN) peacekeepers with the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Though UNIFIL has suffered similar attacks in the past, the June 26th bombing resulted in UNIFIL’s first casualties since the passage of UN Resolution 1701, a ceasefire agreement ending the July 2006 Israel-Lebanon War.
Despite UNIFIL’s upgraded peacemaking status and fortified ranks, the force will suffer similar attacks in the coming months as Hizballah and Israel prepare for future confrontation.
Adapted Mandate
Originally deployed in March 1978, UNIFIL’s initial contingent of peacekeepers was caught in the crossfire of the Lebanese Civil War. Serving under a UN Charter Chapter 6 mandate, UNIFIL I peacekeepers were only permitted to shoot in self-defense (fire when fired upon); as a result, many soldiers lost their lives.
Therefore, when UNIFIL agreed to extend its mission as a component of the August 16, 2006 ceasefire agreement between Hizballah and Israel, not only were its ranks increased from 2,000 to 15,000 peacekeepers, but also its mission was redefined under chapter 7 of the UN charter.
UNIFIL II, as it is now known, is currently comprised of 13,433 peacekeepers with a mandate to ensure, by force if necessary, that the Blue Line (Lebanese territory south of the Litany River) remains a weapon-free zone.
After the ceasefire came into full effect, UNIFIL II’s mission morphed into a humanitarian effort. Today, its troops distribute clothes and school supplies, provide dental care, veterinary services, and medical assistance; alongside their efforts to demine the south. However, these efforts have not shielded them from being accused of spying and mobbed by villagers just north of their deployment area in February 2007. In addition, Hizballah fighters have planted bombs against UNIFIL patrols in retaliation for its confiscation of an abandoned stockpile of mortar shells and rockets that were planted by Hizballah prior to the July 2006 war. UNIFIL II has also discovered wire-trip detonating bombs planted in close proximity to its post, all comprised of Israeli components.
Testing the Waters
A UN team of investigators conveyed in its 46-page report to the UN Security Council (UNSC) that Lebanon’s border with Syria remains porous. “The present state of border security was insufficient to prevent smuggling, in particular in smuggling of arms, to any significant extent,” the team concluded. Immediately following the imposition of the August 2006 ceasefire, Hizballah began to rebuild its armaments. UNIFIL II discovered 17 rocket launchers and a concrete launch pad on April 6, 2007 within its deployment zone, but this is a small success compared to the number of rockets suspected of crossing Lebanon’s Syria border each month.
In response to UNIFIL II’s deployment, Hizballah relocated its arms depots north of the Litany River (north of the Blue Line). Israel is also preparing for future conflict, reinforcing its deployments along both its Lebanese and Syrian borders. However, outside attempts to draw Israel and Hizballah into a premature confrontation, such as the June 17, 2007 Katyusha rockets launched into Israel by Fatah al-Islam, have failed. Neither Israel nor Hizballah will strike before they have sufficiently assessed their enemy’s capabilities, a process that will include gauging UNIFIL II’s commitment to its mission and response capabilities.
Looking Forward
Both Hizballah and Israel will continue to be cautious in their dealings with UNIFIL II, in particular due to its inclusion of Spanish, Italian, and French troops. UNIFIL will not, however, prevent a second war from occurring in the future. As confirmed by the Commander of UNIFIL II, French General Alian Pellegrini, UNIFIL II’s mission does not include disarming Hizballah. Nothing short of disarmament will stop such a confrontation from taking place.
There are two reasons a confrontation between Hizballah-Israel is assured.
• First, as tension over Iran’s nuclear program intensifies, Iran will become increasingly concerned about the threat of an Israeli air strike on its nuclear facilities. Hizballah is Iran’s primary method of distraction for the Israeli army. As long as Hizballah is a viable, threatening force along its northern border, Israel will be aware that such a strike will be accompanied by serious repercussions.
• Second, Hizballah represents the only force in the Middle East that can say it defeated the Israeli military—an extremely proud institution. Israel will not allow a formidable enemy to reside in such a close proximity for long without launching an offensive to regain its undefeated status.
Therefore, regardless of UNIFIL II’s presence in Lebanon, a third Israel-Hizballah confrontation should be expected to occur within the next two years.
