Mohhammed-Bagher Ghalibaf – the twice-elected mayor of Tehran – is an ascendant Iranian politician and already a likely candidate for the 2009 Iranian presidential election. Ghalibaf represents the new line of moderate conservatives who are successfully challenging the hard-line contingent led by President Ahmadinejad that has dominated the government agenda in recent years.
Broad Appeal
Ghalibaf’s professional experience as a soldier, police officer, and public servant, engenders an electoral appeal that cuts across the Iranian political spectrum. For the conservative base, Ghalibaf represents both the military and the notion of ‘law and order.’ He served successfully as commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp. (IRGC) Air Force and Chief of the National Law Enforcement Agency before his first term as mayor in 2005. Conversely, Ghalibaf earned praise among moderate conservatives and reformists for peacefully breaking up the 2003 student led protests by engaging student leaders in talks and barring police use of guns or batons on the demonstrators. Further pleasing to these constituencies, Ghalibaf purportedly holds a more sophisticated foreign policy outlook than the current administration having earned a doctorate in geo-political affairs.
Ghalibaf’s most appealing characteristic for all Iranians is a pragmatic outlook coinciding with his growing reputation as a ‘man of action.’ Ghalibaf has burrowed through the notorious inefficiency of Tehran’s municipal bureaucracy to launch and complete infrastructure projects that have brought increasing order to the city’s chaotic streets. He has also implemented internationally praised city earthquake preparedness programs and recently attended a well-publicized summit with the mayor of Zurich to discuss city management strategy. In comparison to much of the Iranian national and municipal government, Ghalibaf stands out for espousing a degree of professionalism and accountability.
Unseating Ahmadinejad
Ghalibaf came in fourth place in the 2005 presidential elections, failing to qualify for the runoff that saw Ahmadinejad defeat Ayatollah Rafsanjani. Political observers contend Ghalibaf ran a campaign that was too slick and too Western—appealing to reformists and the Iranian youth—yet critically neglecting his conservative base and the working poor.
The current political environment in Iran has altered significantly and will inevitably look different in 2009. While not reeling, the hard-line conservatives in the Iranian government have certainly suffered setbacks. The Ahmadinejad administration’s disastrous economic policy, repressive social restrictions, and excessive foreign policy rhetoric has resulted in electoral losses. Reformists and moderate conservatives have reclaimed some power in winning elections for local municipalities, the highly influential Assembly of Experts, and the mayorship of Tehran.
The 2007 Tehran mayoral race highlighted Ghalibaf’s viability as a 2009 presidential candidate. Ahmadinejad allies fought vehemently yet ultimately failed to defeat Ghalibaf, making attempts to buy off conservatives and reformists on the Tehran Municipal Council – a 15-member body that selects the mayor. As a former Tehran mayor, Ahmadinejad and his supporters are keenly aware that the office brings with it significant political and financial capitol that is often used to launch successful bids for national office (source).
Future US Relations
Ghalibaf is no revolutionary. He believes the performance of the government must change, not the clerical regime structure. However, Ghalibaf has stated that Iranians must stop blaming foreign forces for their problems and look internally for solutions. This notion threatens the current hard-line power-holders, who consistently blame external powers for their failed governance, and also portends well for US-Iranian relations under a Ghalibaf presidency. While he reiterates the mainstream government interpretation of the US as an enemy, Ghalibaf has promoted loosely the idea of reaching an accommodation with America.
Ghalibaf’s political ascendancy and the hard-line conservative efforts to block him bear watching over the next several years.
