July 13th marks the beginning of the 15th Pan American Games, taking place every four years, always one year before the Olympic Games, with over 5,000 athletes from 42 countries competing in 38 sports over the course of 16 days. Expecting to draw nearly one million spectators, this year the games are occurring in Brazil’s Rio de Janeiro. Unfortunately, the second largest Brazilian metropolis is also home to organized crime, drug trafficking gangs, paramilitary militias, and one of Latin America’s highest murder rates at approximately 50 per 100,000 residents.
As such, there are a large amount of security concerns associated with the upcoming Pan American Games. Presently there is no intelligence leading to any indication of a terrorist attack during the Games.
Potential Threats
Gang violence is the major security concern for the Games. Although there are no specific gang-related threats against the Pan American Games venues, transportation systems, or the tourism industry, gang-related violence in Rio de Janeiro is a frequent occurrence and spill over violence could affect the games in several ways. Rio’s 600 shantytowns, or favelas, home to over 1 million of Rio’s inhabitants, are the hotbeds for drug-related violence and are in direct proximity to nearly all of the Pan American Game venues, important transportation routes, and Rio de Janeiro International Airport.
While coordinated attacks on Pan American assets are unlikely, spill over violence from the favelas in the form of stray bullets or fires may disrupt transportation systems or other crucial infrastructure subsequently affecting the Games. Organized gangs commonly engage in violence with rival gangs and militia groups producing hour-long shootouts affecting not only gang members but innocent civilians as well.
In May 2007, law enforcement officials conducted a coordinated occupation of the Alemao favela community in attempts to rid the slum of drug trafficking. All that ensued was an increase in violence. In June 2007, the National Public Security Forces were called to assist in the operation. The occupation is ongoing and has claimed over 17 lives and over 60 injuries. Current media reporting suggests that law enforcement will similarly attempt to contain Rio’s other active favelas during the Pan American Games.
Crime is the second highest threat to foreign assets during the Pan American Games. Denoting the situation as critical, the US Department of Diplomatic Security advised that foreign nationals be aware of their surroundings at all times. Carjackings and armed robberies are not uncommon. Muggings occur daily and perpetrators of such crimes often become violent when victims chose to resist. Airports, hotels, and public transportation are some of the places muggers strike most frequently. Express kidnappings or quicknappings, in which a person is kidnapped and either brought to an ATM to withdraw funds or kept for a small ransom, are consistently a threat.
Protesting also brings a unique threat to the Pan American Games. Although we are unaware of any planned mass protests at this time, activist groups have been known to stage anti-American or anti-globalization protests in the recent past.
Additionally, recent aviation sector breakdowns and strikes threaten to disrupt mobility throughout the Games. March 2007 saw a major strike from air traffic controllers, the ramifications of which are still apparent. In June 2007 intensified delays and cancellations and subsequent traveler protests also occurred.
Of particular concern is the anticipated visit of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez during the Games. His arrival is likely to induce increased anti-American protesting with the potential of isolated violent breakouts similar to when Chavez visited Argentina in 2005 and once again in 2007.
Terrorism is unlikely at the Games even though international sports tournaments offer a wide audience for attacks. However, though significant for the region, the Pan American Games will not have major media coverage in the US, Europe, or the Muslim world. No benefit of a wide audience exists, so while there is always concern about attacks on US interests overseas, there is no increased likelihood of an attack because of the Games.
Terrorist organizations Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) do both have infrastructure in Brazil but the likelihood of a coordinated attack from either is low. Hezbollah’s main area of operation is the Tri-Border area where Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay meet. Hezbollah has maintained a presence in South America since the late 1980’s but uses the region mostly for non-operational aspects of terrorism such as fundraising activities from the almost 30,000 Arabs that live in the Tri-Border area. They have, however, been implicated in the 1992 attack on the Israeli embassy (Terrorist Attack) and the 1994 AMIA bombing both in Argentina (Terrorist Attack).
The FARC acts in Brazil for narco-trafficking purposes and has little reason to and is unlikely to disrupt the Games.
If an attack were to take place, the Pan American Games do present a high number of potential targets often attacked by terrorists. Stadiums, public transportation, and tourist sites are likely targets for any attack as they would inflict the most casualties and cause the largest disruption. Infrastructure facilities could also be targeted in an attack. However there is no intelligence leading to any indication of a terrorist attack during the Games.
Preventive Preparations
The Brazilian Government has implemented a dual security strategy for the games. The first is to incorporate as many Brazilians into the Games as possible. Local volunteer teams have been compiled to assist tourists with directions and other needs. Nearly 18,000 residents will be volunteering during the Games. Additionally, free tickets will be distributed to underprivileged families to induce further integration and participation.
The second piece of the strategy is increased law enforcement activity. An estimated 18,000 law enforcement officers, a coordinated group of local, federal, and military police will be securing the streets of Rio during the 16-day period. Many will be deployed into the favelas to contain any violence and prevent spillover into the Games.
Additional technology is being implemented as well. For example, 388 new CCTV cameras are being installed to supplement the existing 102 cameras. Police forces will be fully operational and highly visible 24 hours a day, seven days a week throughout the entirety of the Games.
While a terrorist attack can never be completely ruled out and neither can violent protesting, no intelligence to date suggests any coordinated attacks or demonstrations planned for the Pan American Games.
As such, spill over violence from gang warfare in Rio’s dense favelas remains the key security threat to the Games. Crime, also, will likely disrupt the games on some scale.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva insists the games will be a success and hopes that the success from the Games will allow for continued security and entice increased foreign investment to Rio de Janeiro in the future.
