According to the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), as of June 5, 2007, the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Iraq had reached 2 million. UNHCR estimates that another 2.2 million Iraqis are taking shelter in neighboring states.
Though a significant proportion of Iraqi refugees fled Iraq prior to the 2003 US invasion, 820,000 Iraqis have been internally displaced since the February 2006 bombing of the al-Askariya mosque in Samarra, and current estimates conclude that 40,000 to 50,000 Iraqis each month flee to neighboring states.
Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)
The majority of IDPs in Iraq originated in Baghdad. The first wave of individuals were predominately Sunnis fleeing sectarian violence in Baghdad in the aftermath of the Askariya Mosque bombing. These Sunnis were later followed by Shia Sadrists and members of the Mahdi Army in the wake of the ceasefire agreement between Moqtada al-Sadr and US forces. Others were forced to leave their homes through death threats and/or eviction notices because they were members of a particular city’s minority sect.
As a result, Iraq has become increasingly divided along sectarian lines. Many IDPs who first attempted to relocate to areas in which they were members of the majority sect were then forcefully recruited by sectarian militias. Some joined and fought, while others chose to flee to camps. The number of IDPs fleeing Iraq’s cities grew at such a shocking rate that the UN and other relief agencies have been unable to cope effectively. Currently, the majority of IDPs living in Anbar, Baghdad, Karbala, Najaf and the southern provinces do not have access to potable water or sufficient food and non-food supplies. Thousands resort to sleeping in the open air due to a tent shortage.
As the situation continues to worsen, these IDPs will be faced with three options:
• Those who possess legal documentation and sufficient finances could seek shelter in a neighboring country;
• Men who cannot flee the country will be forced to return to the cities and join the insurgency; and
• Female-headed households (representing 14 percent of Iraqi families) without the option to emigrate will be forced to remain in the camps and face possible starvation.
Externally Displaced Persons
Of Iraqis fleeing abroad, 1.4 million are displaced in Syria, up to 750,000 in Jordan, 80,000 in Egypt, and approximately 200,000 in the Gulf region. In order to slow the rate of emigration, the UNHCR is only granting refugee status to displaced Iraqis who are considered to be in need of special assistance. Rather than slowing the rate of emigration, however, the majority of externally displaced Iraqis are fleeing with what little they have and becoming a burden on their host countries.
Syria
Syria is the only country with an open door policy for Iraqi refugees. At first, the Syrian government welcomed Iraqis to take part in their health and educational systems; many Iraqis even bought property in Damascus’ old city. As a result, the rent in Damascus and other major cities has doubled in the last year. Currently, the Syrian government is in the process of passing legislation preventing Iraqis from purchasing property, and earlier this year it prohibited refugees from accessing Syria’s free medical programs. The UNHCR granted the Syrian government US $2 million in medical aid in order to renovate hospitals, train medical staff, and provide for new medical equipment. This is the fourth such grant given to Syria, bringing the total of UNHCR aid in 2007 to Syria to US $10 million so far.
Iraqis settling in Syria represent the full spectrum of Iraq’s sectarian divide. An interview with Abu Jaffar Khazimi, Moqtada Sadr’s representative in Syria, revealed that many Shia fled Baghdad for Syria after Moqtada al-Sadr signed a cease-fire with the US. Khazimi reported that there are many Sunni loyalists to Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party residing in Damascus. Baath representatives in Damascus largely avoid Iraqi gatherings, but Khazimi said they know who they are and would fight them.
With such sentiments circulating in Damascus along with increasing domestic unrest brought on by the negative toll Iraqi refugees are taking on the Syrian economy, the political and social situation in Syria is becoming tenuous. As some Iraqi refugees in Syria are increasingly forced to prostitute their wives and daughters in order to support their families while qualified young men are incapable of finding employment, sectarian tensions among Iraqis will become increasingly amplified, leading to a spillover of sectarian violence in Damascus.
Jordan and Egypt
As of June 2007, approximately 700,000 Iraqi refugees reside in Jordan. Unlike Iraqis living in Syria, Iraqis in Jordan are not allowed to work and are increasingly given temporary transit visas that only allow them to reside in Jordan legally for two weeks (instead of three month temporary residence visas). As a result, most Iraqis living in Jordan are illegal residents and face the threat of deportation. Those who are not deported will be required to pay a fine of 1 JD (US $1.50) per day for every day over two weeks they are in Jordan; making it impossible for many to afford their exit visas. Currently, Jordan is not accepting male Iraqi refugees.
While Jordan has forced Iraqi refugees into accepting illegal residency, Egypt has closed its doors to Iraqi refugees completely. Both countries are concerned about the impact Iraqi refugees will have on their countries politically and economically. Estimates show that 80 percent of Iraqi refugees living abroad are Sunni. Jordan, who has been targeted by al-Qaeda bombings in the past, is home to a large network of Salafi jihadist movements based out of its Palestinian refugee camps. And, both Egypt and Jordan walk political tight ropes in their dealings with their prospective factions of the Muslim Brotherhood. These interactions, along with political incentives to prevent a shift in Iraq’s sectarian balance toward increased Shia domination, have led both Jordan and Egypt to restrict the flow of refugees into their countries. Nonetheless, the November 2005 hotel bombings in Jordan were carried out by Iraqi refugees residing in Jordanian territory.
The Future Threat
The fastest growing refugee crisis in the world—providing for Iraqi refugees—has become an issue of primary importance for regional and international security. If Iraqis seeking refuge from sectarian violence are not properly provided for they will either return to fight in Iraq or they will ignite sectarian conflicts in their host countries. The hotel bombings of 2005 are evidence of the threat, as are the jihadist camps already flourishing between Jordan and Lebanon’s Palestinian refugee populations.
Jihadist groups that formerly targeted their recruitment operations in Palestinian refugee camps will likely expand into Iraqi refugee camps in Iraq, Syria, Jordan, and abroad. There will therefore be an increased instance of bombing operations implemented by Iraqi refugees in the near to long-term. These operations will be conducted in the Middle East primarily, but may also occur in European countries.