It now appears that the prospect for an independent Kosovo, and a decisive and successful United Nations Resolution on the matter is likely to be delayed if not jeopardized. Kosovo, territorially still part of Serbia, has been a UN Protectorate since 1999. The international community has been attempting to find a solution to Kosovo’s final status for some time. Options have included an independent state, favored by the majority Albanian population in Kosovo; the return of Kosovo to Serbia, favored by Serbia; or the division of Kosovo into small cantons or districts.
It has taken nearly eight years for the international community to propose a final solution to Kosovo’s status. The two sides most affected by the outcome, the majority Albanian population in Kosovo and Serbia have grown increasingly frustrated with the lack of progress on this issue. When a plan was announced in January of 2007, by Martii Ahtisaari the Special Envoy of the Secretary General on Kosovo’s Future Status, there was some relief that an end-point for Kosovo was near. The plan calls for Kosovo to be granted initial limited statehood with international supervision. Most of the European powers and the United States supported the plan, and Kosovo’s Albanian majority was cautiously optimistic about it. However, Serbia, backed by the Russian government, has vehemently rejected the plan. As a result, tensions are running high and Russia has threatened to use their vetoing power within the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to postpone Kosovo independence indefinitely.
US and European Resolve Diverging
It now seems that the unity and resolve of US and European government positions may be wavering in the face of Russian opposition. At the June 2007 Group of Eight Summit (G-8), French President Nikolas Sarkozy proposed a new UN Resolution that would delay any independence moves for six months while further negotiations would take place. If these negotiations were not successful, then the original plan for independence could be instated.
Also during the recent G8, President Bush expressed strong statements that Kosovo should gain independence as soon as possible and that there should be no stalling on this matter as further negotiations were likely to be unproductive (Previous Report). President Bush advised Russia not to hinder the process. The statements made by President Bush appeared decisive and were greeted with joy by Kosovar Albanians. However, almost a week later, it appears the US is softening and possibly reversing its stance.
Talk Versus Action
The US envoy to the Kosovo final status talks, Frank Wisner, after meeting with European partners stated that independence plans for Kosovo may be delayed if it would bring Russia to the table. Wisner told Kosovo officials that the nations overseeing the negotiations were willing to foster new talks to demonstrate that every avenue was open to consideration. Yet before his arrival in Kosovo Wisner stated that Europe and the US were unified in their pursuit of an independent Kosovo and that the US was not in favor of long and drawn-out negotiations. Wisner’s proposal bears resemblance to the Sarkozy plan that was dismissed by Russia. Kosovar Albanians were already upset with the French proposal believing it demonstrated a lack of resolve in Europe. However, President Bush’s subsequent statements raised their hopes only for the situation to become clouded again by Wisner’s recent comments.
Both the US and Europe are likely appeasing Russian concerns seeking to avoid a UN Security Council showdown while stalling for time. Both sides continue to fear the possible resumption of violence following Kosovo independence. Wisner’s comments could also be an attempt to appease European concerns over increasing Russian fortitude and intransigence, demonstrating US and European cooperation and commitment to Kosovo independence. If Russia refuses to shift its position, then it is possible that any recognition of Kosovo independence would have to be done unilaterally rather than by the UN, a process some European countries find uncomfortable. It is also likely that Serbia and Russia would not recognize the legality of Kosovo independence without a UN mandate.
Serbia and Russia
Serbia has refused to participate in additional talks so long as Kosovo independence is pre-determined, believing they have nothing to gain from it. However, Russia remains the primary obstructer. While there is a risk Serbia could revert to violence following Kosovo independence approval due to continued nationalistic sentiment throughout the country, Serbia also aspires to join the European Union and NATO. Recently, Serbia has increased its cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) turning over several wanted was criminals, encouraging the EU to resume preliminary membership talks. Its desire to join both the EU and NATO could stave off any potential violence.
Russia is seeking to avoid establishing an independence precedent, fearing Kosovo’s independence could incite other separatist movements. Secondly, Russia wishes to counter Western influence in the region through a more robust foreign policy.
The Future
The US and Europe appear to be diverging on how best to deal with Russian intransigence despite claims to the contrary. Russia is unlikely to exhibit flexibility over Kosovo, and will exploit any potential fissures between the US and Europe on this issue. At this time we do not anticipate a timely or orderly resolution to the current impasse over the future of Kosovo.