The Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) has waged war against the Ugandan government since 1986. Over the past 21 years the war has resulted in the kidnapping of an estimated 20,000 children, the displacement of 1.5 million people, and has created instability in northern Uganda, Southern Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
Without increased international assistance, there is little hope for achieving a lasting peace between the LRA and the Uganda government.
Prospects for Peace
The Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) began efforts to start peace talks between the government of Uganda and the LRA in 2005. A cease-fire was implemented in late August 2006 and peace talks shortly followed. The peace talks were stopped in late 2006 as LRA leader Joseph Kony insisted on a change in location for the peace talks from Juba, Southern Sudan to Kenya. Kony agreed to have the talks in Juba in March and the talks resumed in late May 2007, (Previous Report).
The cease-fire has been extended several times and remains in effect. However, there have been small-scale attacks by LRA fighters against Ugandan government troops. While the government of Uganda has threatened to end negotiations in response to the attacks, unless the cease-fire is officially ended or the frequency or scale of attacks increases, the government of Uganda will remain committed to the peace process.
LRA’s Regional Impact
In addition to improving conditions in northern Uganda, a peace agreement would also be beneficial to many neighboring countries. The LRA, funded by the National Congress Party (NCP) in Khartoum Sudan, fought in southern Sudan during the north-south civil war that lasted almost two decades. There is fear that the NCP will use the LRA to disrupt the 2009 elections and 2011 referendum vote on independence in Southern Sudan. Both votes are important parts of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended the north south Sudanese civil war. If the election and referendum do not occur, there is a risk of succession and possibly renewed fighting between north and south Sudan.
The LRA has also been involved in fighting in DRC. The LRA are currently operating out of the Garamba National Park in the DRC. This has resulted in fighting that could threaten the stability of DRC. The LRA, with funding and direction from the NCP, could further destabilize the Chad, the Central African Republic (CAR), and Sudan areas.
Obstacles to Peace
The LRA is utilized by many government’s in the region as a “hired gun” when needed to destabilize neighbors. As such, limiting the LRA’s ability to fill this role is not in everyone’s interest.
To advance the peace process, Kony and Uganda President Museveni are in need of a trusted third party. LRA would need reassurance in the negotiations that it would be removed from the US State Department’s Terrorist Exclusion List. Kony and other LRA leaders have also sought immunity from the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the US war on terrorism as a precursor for any peace deal to work. As a member of the UN Security Council, the US would be able to use its leverage to improve the peace negotiations.
In February 2005, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Kony and other top LRA officials for committing war crimes. Any part of a peace deal will likely have to include guaranteed asylum for Kony and the other top LRA officials indicted by the ICC in a third party country that is not a signatory to the ICC.
The Future of the Peace Talks
The peace talks have exclusively been led by the GoSS. The only Western involvement is the United Nations’ appointment of former Mozambican president Joaqium Chissano as its Envoy for the talks.
The Sudanese government could also use the LRA to further destabilize the ongoing conflict in Darfur and Chad. The LRA has been seen in Central African Republic receiving supplies originating from the Sudanese government. It is also feared that Congolese parties could use the LRA to advance their interests.
The longest running war in Africa has impacted northern Uganda and neighboring countries for two decades. Ending the war would greatly improve regional stability. However, without more involvement from the international community, in particular the West, the prospects for peace remain uncertain.
