One week has passed since Spanish terrorist group ETA announced it was ending its so-called “permanent” ceasefire. In the subsequent days following the June 5, 2007, announcement, Spanish police stepped up its anti-terrorism efforts, resulting in the arrest of three ETA suspects in neighboring France and the re-arrest and detainment of convicted terrorism supporter and Batasuna political party leader Arnaldo Otegi. These arrests and renewed focus on ETA will likely result in near-term terrorist incidents.
A June 5, 2007, announcement made via a Basque-language newspaper, ended the 15-month ETA ceasefire and ongoing efforts spearheaded by Prime Minister Zapatero to replace ETA-inspired attacks with peace. Visibly displeased with the breakdown in the peace process, Zapatero has called for a substantial crack down on individuals suspected of terrorism and connections to ETA. Additionally, on June 11, 2007, Prime Minister Zapatero met with political opposition leader, Mariano Rajoy, to discuss a new strategy to deal with the armed terror group.
ETA Suspects Arrested in France
On June 7, 2007, police made the first arrests since the end of the ceasefire, arresting three ETA suspects in southern France, ETA’s traditional cross border haven. In an early morning raid, police arrested two men and one woman in the village of Bagneres de Baigorri, near Lourdes, France. The trio had been under surveillance for two weeks, but was apprehended shortly after purportedly receiving instructions from ETA to carry out an immediate attack. Police believe the three were given orders on June 5, 2007, the day ETA declared it would no longer abide by the ceasefire. The suspects arrested include:
– Alaitz Areito Azpiri, a woman who until 2002 recruited new ETA operatives in northern Spain. She fled a 2003 police roundup and was involved in a shootout the following year. Recently, she is suspected of training ETA members for attacks.
– Aitor Lorente Bilbao, linked to ETA for nearly 10 years, was arrested in Spain in 2002 and released in 2006. Prior to being arrest on June 7, 2007, Bilbao had been in hiding evading an arrest warrant for suspicion of possessing weapons, ammunition, and explosives.
– Igor Igartua Etxeberria, fled Spain in 2000 after an arrest warrant was issued for collaborating with ETA.
During the June 7, 2007, raid, police seized a handgun, forged documents, cash, and tools generally employed to steal cars and manufacture fraudulent license plates. The materials were likely to be used to place car bombs in stolen vehicles with fake license plates, a hallmark of ETA attacks.
Basque Separatist Leader Jailed
On June 8, 2007, Spanish police arrested Arnaldo Otegi, leader of the banned Batasuna political party and ETA political arm, in the Basque city of San Sebastian. The arrest of Otegi is the latest blow to the ETA-inspired pro-independence movement and evidence of the recent strong police crackdown on the group. Police arrested Ortegi after the Spanish Supreme Court rejected his appeal against a conviction handed down in April 2006 over remarks he made at a 2003 rally in memory of an ETA leader on the 25th anniversary of his death. Prosecutors allege Otegi praised terrorism at the rally, a charge he contests. Conversely, Otegi was a self-proclaimed interlocutor in the potential peace talks between ETA and Spain’s ruling Socialist government, a charge the government denies as ETA’s aim of Basque independence was never considered a viable option.
As we previously reported, Spain’s Socialist government has suffered harsh criticism over Prime Minister Zapatero’s handling of ETA. Until recently, the prime minister was seeking peace-talks with the terror group. In light of past criticism and facing an upcoming 2008 general election, Zapatero’s government welcomed the Supreme Court’s recent decision to re-arrest Otegi. Batasuna spokesman, Pernando Barrena, expressed his party’s dissatisfaction over the ruling. To that end, Otegi’s arrest will strain existing tensions and further infuriate ETA and Basque independence supporters alike.
PM and Opposition Leader Meet to Discuss ETA
On June 11, 2007, Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero met with opposition leader Mariano Rajoy to discuss ETA in the wake of ETA’s declaration to end its ceasefire. The two sought to reach an agreement on the issue after an extended period of opposition on an effective ant-terrorism policy. Until recently, Zapatero sought to establish peace through talks with the group, while Rajoy refused to engage the group until they agreed to disarm. As it is still early in the process, it is unclear whether this latest round of discussion will lead to compromise regarding an anti-terrorism strategy.
Following Prime Minister Zapatero and opposition leader Rajoy’s meeting, Deputy Prime Minister, María Teresa Fernández de la Vega, reaffirmed the government’s intention to strengthen the police and the judiciary in the fight against ETA. Specifically, the fundamental goal of the government is now to guarantee the safety of Spanish citizens.
Crackdowns Likely To Incite Future ETA Attacks
As we previously reported, we believe future ETA-inspired attacks are likely. ETA’s announcement of a unilateral “permanent” ceasefire in March 2006 initially raised hopes for an end to the nearly 40 years of ETA violence. However, the June 5, 2007, announcement ending the ceasefire will likely reinvigorate ETA and Basque independence supporters who, until now, have been inactive. Additionally, the crackdown on terrorist activity to include last week’s arrests of Batasuna political leader, Arnaldo Otegi and three ETA suspects in France will likely galvanize ETA and like-minded individuals.
We believe ETA will seek to retaliate against the Zapatero-led government. To that end, we will see small-scale attacks bearing the hallmarks of ETA – chaotic violence with minimal casualties, in the near future against government and possibly tourist sites.
