Although a plan on the final status of the United Nations (UN) protectorate of Kosovo was unveiled at the beginning of the year and it is currently under deliberation by the UN Security Council, it seems that the various parties involved in the negotiations are further apart. After almost eight years of limbo, patience is running out in Kosovo. Kosovars must deal with a troubled past, but in order to move beyond the past, they must be able to envision and plan for a future; something that is virtually impossible while they remain a UN protectorate.
In addition, the longer an end-state is delayed for Kosovo, the harder it is for Kosovo to return to normalcy. Growing anger and resentment could lead to a flare up of violence in both Kosovo and Serbia. Many parties have grown weary of continued debate on Kosovo and want the issue finally put to rest and the Ahtisaari plan of initial limited statehood with international supervision implemented, (Martii Ahtisaari is the Special Envoy of the Secretary General on Kosovo’s Future Status and the architect of the status proposal). Yet both Russia and Serbia have vowed never to accept this plan, with Russia threatening to use its veto in the Security Council. It now seems that the future of Kosovo has been subjugated to the larger issues of international politics.
US Recent Statements and Russia
While the US has been supportive of the Ahtisaari plan, President Bush’s statements on his recent trip to Europe are the strongest and clearest indication yet of US support for an independent Kosovo and closure to this issue. President Bush bluntly stated that it is now time to give Kosovo independence, Moscow should not hold up the issue any longer and that endless dialogue on the issue is not productive. Such strong language at a time when relations between the US and Russia are low has puzzled some.
Russia under President Putin has adopted an increasingly belligerent tone in world affairs and has aimed much of its vitriolic language at the US. The most recent flare-up between the two powers centers on the proposed US missile interceptor program with sites in Europe, specifically the Czech Republic and Poland (Previous Report). Russia claimed it was threatened by such a system and suggested it might have to retaliate by upgrading its own arsenal with targets in Europe (Previous Report). Yet, in the last week, Russia surprised many with a counter-proposal for radar/intercept sites in other locations. At the G—8 Summit, it also appeared that President Bush was trying to take a firm stance with Russia, while at the same time trying to ease tensions with that country.
Certainly such a firm statement on Kosovo is not likely to please Moscow, but neither is it a deliberate effort to antagonize Moscow. President Bush’s firm words are a signal to Moscow that the US has influence and credibility in this region. While the US does back the current UN plan for Kosovo, it would seem the US call for no further delays and for Russia’s support is a clear indication that the US is not willing to let Moscow dominate the region.
Regional Reaction
The Serbian government is outraged at President Bush’s comments. Serbian Prime Minister, Vojislav Kostunica has said that not only is his country embittered by the President’s comments, but that the US should show its affinity for Kosovo another way besides giving away Serbia’s territory. Bush has tried to placate Serbia indicating that there is a way forward with NATO, the European Union, and improved relations with the US. Serbia is not likely to be appeased regarding the Kosovo issue, but ultimately NATO and EU aspirations may be enticements for Serbia to make a choice between East and West.
Albania, which gave President Bush his warmest welcome in Europe, is delighted, as it views an independent Kosovo as a victory for the majority ethnic Albanians residing in Kosovo. The Kosovo Prime Minister, Agim Ceku has stated that Kosovo can no longer wait for its final status resolution to be rehashed again.
The G-8 Summit and France
The recent Group of Eight (G-8) Summit had many issues to debate, including Kosovo, but failed to come to a consensus or conclusion on this matter. However, a proposal by new French President Nikolas Sarkozy did surprise many G-8 members, as well as the EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana. Sarkozy proposed introducing a new resolution that would delay any independence moves for six months while fresh negotiations began between Serbia and Kosovo. If no new comprises could be reached, then the original UN plan would be implemented. Sarkozy’s reasoning for a delay is that continued divisions over the Kosovo issue could potentially risk the lives of NATO forces should violence resurge in the region. Interestingly, Russia rejected the Sarkozy proposal even though they are demanding that Serbia and Kosovo resume negotiations. It is likely that they do not want any time limits on the talks or the original plan for Kosovo to be reverted to.
Outlook
No amount of time is likely to achieve any sort of compromise that would accommodate all parties’ interests on the Kosovo issue. We predict that Russia will veto a UN backed Kosovo resolution as it stands now. This Russian stance is not because Serbia is an ally, but because it may set a dangerous precedent for independence movements in Russian territories such as Chechnya, and because Russia wants to counter Western influence in the region. As a result, we believe Kosovo will remain a strategic prize between East and West and its future will not be decided in the near-term.
