A secretive sect known as the Mungiki have been involved in several recent acts of violence in Kenya. Mungiki leadership currently claims to have over two million members (though their numbers are likely closer to one hundred thousand), and to have infiltrated Kenyan government offices, factories, schools and the armed forces. Group members have also evolved over the years from tobacco sniffing, dreadlocked religious based individuals to dangerous organized criminals.
Consequently, government officials are particularly concerned with the ability of the sect to play a violent role in Kenya’s elections scheduled for December 2007 by inciting unrest via public urgings to overthrow the government. Violence traditionally flares up in the run-up to voting and police fear that any increase in Mungiki violence could bring increased instability during the months preceding the December vote.
Kenya’s Security Minister John Michuki dismisses the claim that the recent police manhunt for followers of the outlawed sect is politically motivated, it seems that both the recent increase of killings by the sect and the subsequent police raids into the Mathare slum could be linked to politics. In fact, security forces were first placed on high alert after leaflets were found around the slum asking youth to join the banned sect and prepare for an uprising against the government.
Recent Violence
One of the original, suspected perpetrators of the June 11, 2007, bombing in Nairobi, killing one person, was the outlawed Mungiki sect. The blast, which occurred at 0815 hrs at a highly trafficked bus stop located near the Ambassadeur Hotel, came less than one week after extensive and violent police raids against the sect.
Open source reporting originally suggested that the attack could have been in retaliation for the estimated 21 suspected sect members killed during these raids. However, it now seems less likely that the Mungiki were involved as police have apprehended three suspects of unknown nationalities; however local media is currently suggesting Somali origin (Previous Report). Still, the Mungiki sect presents a distinct threat to the livelihood of Kenyans, as well as the stability of the nation.
We believe the Mugniki group will increase acts of violence to the mid to long-term in Kenya, as a means to impact upcoming political elections.
Background
Inspired by the bloody Mau Mau rebellion of the 1950s against the British colonial rule, thousands of young Kenyans, mostly drawn from Kenya’s largest tribe, the Kikuyu, formed the Mungiki sect in the late 1980s, purportedly following doctrines based on traditional practices such as oath-taking and female circumcision. The sect quickly became known as an obscure quasi-political religious cult distinguished by its members trademark dreadlocks, tobacco sniffing, and daily prayers aimed at Mount Kenya. Motivations regarding the group’s origin and doctrines remain uncertain, but theories suggest that the sect was created circa 1988 to combat the government of President Daniel arap Moi. What is known for certain is the sect favors a return to indigenous African traditions and rejects Westernization and all things affiliated to colonialism, including a refutation of Christianity. However, the sect, banned by Kenyan government in 2002, has undergone a significant transformation since its inception.
Changing Face
Religious or cultural zeal and a rejection of Western values may have driven its formation, but today’s Mungiki does not have an ideology, and can better be characterized as an amalgam of “social outcasts” bent on inciting anti-government violence and beheading adversaries who challenge its commercial interests (source). Operating most significantly in Nairobi’s largest slum, Mathare, Mungiki operations essentially constitute a “street gang” or criminal network that contributes to, and feeds off, an environment plagued by extreme poverty and crime. The sect has usurped control of the public transport sector and demands operations fees, frequently conducting attacks on operators that refuse to cooperate. Mungiki also pressures residents in the slum to buy their water and electricity at high prices, pay protection money, and a multitude of other “taxes.” The sect even extorts public toilets by charging a user fee for services rendered.
The sect has turned to horrific crimes leaving behind beheaded and mutilated corpses throughout the country. Police stated that past victims have been abducted, tortured, mutilated, beheaded, and had their bodies dismembered. The most recent victims remains were found in a dumpster near a police station in Kiambu, a mere few kilometers from Nairobi in mid-May. These killings sparked the most recent government offensive against the Mungiki sect that has left over 20 suspects and policemen dead.
The Forecast
The Mungiki sect, deeply entrenched in the Mathare slum and successfully infiltrated into Kenyan politics, has taken on characteristics not unlike the well-established drug gangs in the favelas of San Paolo and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
As such, Kenya can expect a long-term battle with an increase of violence and criminality in the near-term. As long as police incursions into Mungiki controlled regions continue, so will deadly shootouts between sect members and security forces. A recent email purportedly from the Mungiki sect declared war on security forces and leaders who support a crackdown on the sect. Beheadings and other retaliatory attacks are more likely as the sect continues to feel pressure from the government.
In the run-up to the general elections in December, increased Mungiki activity is also expected in accordance with Kenya’s tradition of pre-election violence. Operating in secrecy and consisting mostly of anti-government, anti-Western youth, the Mungiki sect will likely prove a worthy future adversary.
