Nick O’Brien, an Associate Professor of Counter Terrorism at Charles Sturt University in Australia, recently noted that many residents of Australia appeared to be searching the Internet for bomb making recipes and instructions (source).
“Bomb Making”
O’Brien was using a new tool recently launched by Google known as ‘Google Trends’ that allows users to trace the geographic location of users selected search terms. For example, as Professor O’Brien noted, Google Trends provides some interesting insight into who is searching on the string “bomb making” – presumably with the intent of locating bomb-making recipes.
According to Google Trends, the top ten cities searching on “bomb making” are 1. Auckland, New Zealand 2. Perth, Australia 3. Melbourne, Australia 4. Brisbane, Australia 5. Sydney, Australia 6. Adelaide, Australia 7. Milton Keynes, United Kingdom 8. Edinburgh, United Kingdom 9. Manchester, United Kingdom 10. London, United Kingdom.
Popularity of Recipes and Components
More in depth analysis on search terms for specific recipes or components of various bomb recipes also reveals some interesting patterns. An analysis of the search terms “nitric acid” and “hexamine”, components used in the construction of homemade RDX, reveals that users in Adelaide, Australia are interested in both terms. Additionally, users in Adelaide, Australia also searched on the terms “ammonium nitrate”, a primary component of an ammonium nitrate fertilizer (ANFO) bomb similar to the type used in the bombing of the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma , as well as the term “triacetone triperoxide”, the ingredients used in the July 7, 2005 London Metro bombings .
While many of these recipes and components are discussed in detail on various al-Qaeda affiliated websites (Previous Report), it is difficult to say that al-Qaeda sympathizers or operatives conducted these search queries. It is equally possible that violent fringes of the animal rights, environmental, and anti-globalizations movements conducted these queries for bomb making recipes or components. For example, an analysis of the search term TATP, the abbreviation for triacetone triperoxide, reveals that 8 of the top 10 cities searching on this term are located in Germany – a potentially ominous fact given the recent warnings on potential attacks on German soil.
Accuracy of Data
It is also important to note that Google Trends data is not necessarily accurate. A savvy terrorist is likely to be aware that counterterrorism officials possess the capability to monitor digital communications and therefore exercise caution when searching the Internet. Many al-Qaeda affiliated websites urge jihadist sympathizers and operatives to practice computer security and recommend the use of proxy servers.
Proxy servers allow Internet users to obfuscate their geographic location by routing requests through servers in different locales. For example, a user in Australia intent on maintaining secrecy could connect to an open anonymous proxy server in the United States and therefore mask their true location in Australia by appearing to originate in the United States.
Enhanced Judgments
While these above limitations preclude the use of Google as an ideal indications and warning system capable of predicting future terrorist attacks, the data contained within the Google Trends tool can certainly be used to inform the judgments of counterterrorism officials. For example, Australian officials may do well to investigate the preponderance of bomb making recipes and component search queries emanating from Adelaide, Australia. Evidence gathered from Google may help investigators direct their inquires or potentially open up new avenues of investigations and therefore should not be ignored.
