In the deteriorating relationship between Russia and the United States, Russia has increased rhetoric over the proposed US missile shield in Europe. President Vladimir Putin has increasingly adopted a bellicose tone in his foreign affairs dealings especially with the United States, but now also seems to be willing to back up this rhetoric with specific threats. Early hopes that Russia would adopt a more cooperative policy with the West after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and a seemingly cooperative attitude with the global war on terrorism appear to be fading.
President Putin has sought to consolidate his power in Russia and to expand Russia’s power abroad, in an attempt to restore Russia’s superpower status. Russia has been incensed by North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) expansion to its borders; NATO membership of its former Soviet satellite states; and Western leanings of former Soviet member states. An increased sense of encirclement has also lead to an isolationist outlook—the Russian government often blames outside influences trying to weaken Russia for Russia’s problems and has very successfully managed to convey a “them versus us” sense to its people in order to justify its activities. The US interceptor missile issue in Europe is yet another high profile case on which Russia can advance its strategic objectives.
Missile Interceptor System Sparks Controversy
The US has for some time wanted to place a missile interceptor system in Europe, in order to counter a potential missile threat from Iran and North Korea. Under the current proposal, the radar system would be placed in the Czech Republic and the interceptor missile site in Poland. This issue has been controversial because of conflicting claims about the perceived threat—real versus speculative, the technical proficiency of such a system, and European fears that they will be caught in the middle of a new arms race between the US and Russia.
Russia has already suspended its participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty (Previous Report) with an open-ended threat to withdraw completely from it, and is also making threatening noises about other arms control treaties as well. However, now Russia is threatening to do more than show displeasure over arms control treaties, as President Putin has openly suggested that Russia rethink its strategic balance and possibly point its missiles at Europe. Russia’s justification is that if European sites are part of the US’ strategic nuclear potential and is threatening Russia, then Russia has to respond.
Russia believes that if missile defense is only on one side, but not on the other, it can lead to nuclear conflict and a sense of balance needs to be restored. Therefore Russia may need to develop and deploy its own weapon system to penetrate the US system. This could take the form of ballistic or cruise missiles. In the last week, Russia has tested a new ballistic missile system capable of carrying multiple warheads with the implication that this system would be part of its new response.
Russian Overtures – US Responses
Of note, Russia has been spinning its actions as a defensive posture against the aggressor United States. Russia has accused the US of initiating a new arms race, and that the real motivation for this interceptor system is not fear of rogue states, but it is rather an attempt to provoke Russian retaliation and to move Russia and Europe further apart. However in traditional arms control, when one side acquires a defensive capability it can be destabilizing as both sides are no longer equal in capability. Of course, why the US would be shooting down missiles over Europe emanating from Russia and why Russia would be launching them in the first place is a major question and concern.
The US and Russia are not in the superpower arms race that pervaded the Cold War years, but Russia’s reaction to the interceptor system may be a sign that the two countries might be headed back down that path. In comments made on June 5, 2007, from Prague, US President Bush claimed that the Cold War is over and the US would invite Russia to participate in the missile interceptor program.
Doubts Linger
It is unlikely that Russia truly believes that the US is trying to antagonize it into a new arms race and sour relations between Russia and Europe. By making provocative statements and placing Europe square in Russia’s strategic targeting because of US actions, President Putin is most likely trying to create a wedge between the US and Europe, a relationship that is already experiencing some friction over US foreign policy choices. Russia seems to be trying to convince Europe that their security is in jeopardy because of US actions.
The Way Forward
Europeans are unsure whether or not Russia is bluffing. Already the missile system is a tough sell in Europe, while the Czech and Polish governments are interested, they face a skeptical and worried public and are likely to demand concessions from the US if they go forward with hosting the system. However, the fact that these countries have not rejected hosting this system and do not wish to appease Russia is probably worrying Russia, hence an escalation of threats.
There is also another more worrying explanation. It is likely that Russia is looking for excuses to rescind its participation in arms control treaties. In the waning days of the Cold War and its early aftermath, some believe that Russia was weakened by its acquiescence to arms control and disarmament. In order to regain some of its superpower status, re-arming, and modernizing its arsenal and acting as a counter to the US whenever possible would fit in with the Putin worldview of Russia being a superpower once again.
We believe that Russia will not back down from its current stance. Previous arms control obligations could be reconsidered and future deployments of systems such as the missile intercept will require a great deal of planning concerning impact to current strategic balances.
