The Iranian government’s detainment of dual Iranian-American citizens has brought international condemnation and calls by world leaders for their release. Haleh Esfandiari and Kian Tajbaksh – a Middle East scholar and an urban planner, respectively – are under arrest and charged with spying and acting against the national security of Iran. California businessmen Ali Shakeri and Radio Farda correspondent Parnaz Azima are likewise detained under similar suspicion.
The roundup of Iranian-Americans and baseless accusations levied by Iranian government officials is not an arbitrary development and best understood within the following contexts: an intra-conservative struggle and a fundamental distrust of US intentions. Tehran is also motivated by a perceived zero-sum competition for influence in the region, whereby their recent actions provide additional leverage against its chief rival – the US.
Intra-Conservative Struggle
The hard-line and moderate factions within the conservative movement in Iran are battling politically for control over the future direction of the country. The latter, led by former President Rafsanjani and espousing an economy-centric governing philosophy more open to engagement with the West, has capitalized on the manifold domestic policy failures of the Ahmadinejad administration. The moderate conservatives performed well in municipal elections and those held for the Assembly of Experts, a critical body that will select Supreme Leader Khamenei’s successor, and also won Khamenei’s approval for the recent Iran-US talks concerning Iraq.
To stem momentum countering hard-line policy, government officials not only arrested the Iranian-Americans but threatened domestic academics with investigations of spying if they participated in conferences abroad. This follows the recent high-profile detention on spying charges of Rafsanjani’s close aide and former nuclear negotiator, Hossein Mousavian. In sum, these repressive actions fit within the broader hard-line agenda of undoing the limited progress gained in opening Iranian society and improving international relations under President’s Khatami and Rafsanjani. Furthermore, the opening of Iran’s economy to foreign investment is perceived as a direct threat to specific elite within the hard-line faction that holds extensive financial interests in various Iranian industries, including the nuclear program. Disruptive events that undermine goodwill are perpetrated whenever the slightest diplomatic opportunity arises (source).
Regime Change
Tehran fundamentally distrusts US intentions, as it believes ‘regime change’ drives US policy. The decision by the Bush Administration in February, 2006 to “support the aspirations of the Iranian people for freedom in their country” (Previous Report) by launching a $75 million dollar program funding Iranian opposition groups and democracy focused Non-Governmental Organizations has only reinforced this viewpoint.
Ultimately, the program has served as a vehicle for arresting the Iranian-Americans, pressuring Iranian academics, and tying both groups to US efforts at fomenting a ‘velvet revolution.’ Iran as a country exhibits a historic paranoia of foreign interference in domestic affairs, thus the government’s charge resonates at some level with the public. Moreover, the tradition of fostering external crises to rally internal support is likewise historic in Iran. The notion of a foreign directed spy network aimed at toppling the Tehran regime is a convenient diversion for an administration facing rising levels of unemployment, inflation, and popular discontent.
Seeking Leverage
Iran is intent on becoming a Middle East hegemon and views the US presence in the region as the greatest threat to that goal. The result is a concerted, deliberate campaign of pressure that includes the arming and advanced training of Shiite militias in Iraq, and the arming of its traditional enemy, the Taliban, in Afghanistan (source). Moreover, it includes the detainment of Iranian-American citizens, a tit-for-tat response to the US detention of Revolutionary Guard members in Iraq, and a means to demonstrate open defiance of its superpower competitor. The net effort aims to build leverage against the US, who is competing for regional influence as well as leading the international charge against Iran’s nuclear program.
