On Monday May 28, 2007, the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) launched a grenade attack against the president of the Somali region of Ethiopia. The grenade attack killed five people and wounded others, including the President of the Somali region. Police fired shots resulting in a stampede that killed an additional six people.
Recent Increase in Attacks
This attack was the second claimed attack this year, and followed an attack on Chinese workers at an Ogaden oil field (Attack) that resulted in 64 Ethiopian soldiers and nine Chinese oil workers being killed. ONLF has been fighting for greater autonomy from Ethiopia in the Ogaden region that is comprised of a majority of ethnic Somalis. This region has been a source of conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia for decades.
The increase in attacks has occurred simultaneously with the ongoing insurgency in Somalia, where Ethiopian soldiers are protecting the Transitional Federal Government. The relationship between Eritrea and Ethiopia has become increasingly strained as the two countries have yet to set a final border following the 1998-2000 war between the two countries.
Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of training and supplying both the insurgents in Somalia and the ONLF rebels. The size of the attack on the Chinese oil field is beyond the capabilities ONLF is thought to have. However, Eritrea has denied supporting either group.
More Attacks Likely
The ONLF is likely to continue its attacks until its demands are met. With thousands of Ethiopian troops fighting an insurgency in Somalia, ONLF will likely attempt to gain concessions from the Ethiopian government. The grenade attack illustrates the effects a small group of people with a limited amount of weapons can have in a crowded area. Further small-scale attacks are likely to continue in the near-term.
In addition to their struggle for more autonomy and possibly even independence from Ethiopia, the ONLF is opposed to the extraction of its natural resources by foreign companies.
The attack on the Chinese oil field in April 2007 was the first attack to follow through with ONLF threats against foreign companies. As China continues to increase its activity throughout Africa, there could be an increase in oil extraction in the Ogaden region. This increase would likely lead to more attacks by ONLF on foreign oil companies.
Because oil production in the Ogaden region has been a recent development, the impact of future attacks on Chinese controlled oil fields to the overall oil markets is likely to be minimal.
Future Concerns
We remain concerned that with Eritrean support, the ONLF will be able to continue to increase both the frequency and scale of its attacks. As Ethiopia continues to feel threatened by Eritrean support of the ONLF and the insurgency in Somalia, it becomes increasingly likely that hostilities between the two countries could resume despite a seven-year cease-fire.
The stability of the Horn of Africa remains a strategic concern. The spread of radical militants to the region has raised concern that the Horn of Africa has increasingly become a recruiting and training area for al-Qaeda.
With the ongoing insurgency in Somalia and the ONLF continuing attacks in the Ogaden region, the ability of outside groups to exploit the situation is an increasing possibility.
