A tenuous cease-fire between Fatah and HAMAS has temporarily halted the most recent bout of Palestinian internecine fighting. The latest battles in Gaza, as well as a likely resumption of intra-Palestinian violence in the near future are predictable outcomes stemming from the failures of the Mecca Accord and its goal of creating a National Unity Government.
A simultaneous steady barrage of rocket fire from Palestinian militant groups in Gaza onto Israeli towns has led to reprisal air strikes from Israel and an organizational crackdown on HAMAS in the West Bank. Furthermore, the US and Israeli decision to provide support for the armed forces of Fatah threatens to undermine a shared aim of moderating events in the Palestinian Territories.
Mecca Accord Repercussions
As we highlighted in our initial analysis of the Mecca Accord (Previous Accord), the agreement failed to address critical issues that prevent a sustainable National Unity Government. These issues continue to fester and will result in future internecine violence.
• First, a mutually respected and empowered Interior Minister is needed to facilitate the conglomeration of disparate security forces under one unified, national banner. Neither the President’s or Prime Minister’s office have relinquished binding support and authority to the newly agreed upon Interior Minister – a frustrated technocrat with no security experience who has threatened to quit the Cabinet.
• Second, a viable mechanism must be created to incorporate the HAMAS Executive Force within the Palestinian Security Services primarily affiliated with Fatah. Fundamental disagreement over enhanced responsibilities for the Executive Force sparked the initial fighting.
• Third, HAMAS must have a clear membership and role within the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), which ultimately crafts official foreign policy. HAMAS inclusion within the PLO will contribute to the validity of any subsequent peace agreement with Israel, and make HAMAS accountable for its claim that it currently abides by all past PLO agreements.
US and Israeli Involvement
US and Israel are eager to support President Abbas – a proponent of a two state solution and peace with Israel. Currently, the Fatah member comprised Presidential Guard is being trained in Egypt under a US aid package. During the recent crisis, Israeli leaders allowed a contingent of Guard members and their weapons to cross into Gaza and support the fight against HAMAS militants. Israel has also reportedly authorized Presidential Guard training to occur in the West Bank (source).
However, this US and Israeli military related support is insufficient in that it does not adequately assist Abbas nor address stability in the Territories. If anything, it facilitates the appearance that Fatah is in league with the conventional powers in attacking Palestinians. Moreover, while increased military support may embolden Fatah, the group is simply incapable of overcoming HAMAS in a decisive showdown.
The Road Forward
Truly empowering Abbas involves alternative measures; such as lifting the economic embargo – as Abbas promised to his people – or releasing Palestinian prisoners to Abbas as a signal of goodwill and not to militants in exchange for hostages.
The optimum goal is to demonstrate to a broader community of Palestinians that Abbas’ peaceful methods bring tangible results, thereby isolating the extremist factions who launch rockets and terrorist attacks against Israel, and their recruiting efforts.
