On May 17, 2007, Algeria conducted its third legislative elections since an Islamist revolt erupted after the cancellation of a national election in January 1992, which left an estimated 150,000 people dead during a decade of fighting. This year’s Parliamentary elections yielded the lowest voter turnout in recent history, with only 35 percent of registered voters actually casting their ballots. Not surprising, Algeria’s governing coalition won an overall majority in the 389-seat lower chamber:
• The National Liberation Front, once Algeria’s only legal party, won 136 seats
• The Rally for National Democracy, known for its pro-business slant, won 61 seats
• The moderately Islamist Movement for Society and Peace won 52 seats
Terrorism Takes a Back Seat
In the days leading up to the election, the al-Qaeda Organization in the Islamic Maghreb (AOIM) released a statement and several videos, some of which called on Algerians to boycott the elections, which it proclaimed to be a “farce” (Previous Report). The group’s media releases followed last month’s triple suicide attack in Algiers (Terrorist Incident, Previous Report). Additionally, on the eve of the elections, a large explosion occurred in Constantine, east of Algiers, which was not claimed by the al-Qaeda group . Nonetheless, it was enough to concern politicians.
In response to the group’s statements, the government publicly urged its citizens to vote as a symbol to terrorists that Algerians are not in support of al-Qaeda – attempting to equate voting with anti-terrorism. Most Algerian people did not respond to the government’s request. Large-scale Algerian apathy, however, should not be understood as widespread support for terrorism.
Rather, Algerians are largely disenchanted with the government’s inconsistent efforts to raise the nation’s standard-of-living and have lost faith in their government’s willingness to provide the necessary social services. For many Algerians, the problem of terrorism would be mitigated if oil-and-gas exporting revenues were largely spent on adequate housing and raising unemployment levels.
Social Concerns Dominate the Polls
Despite the April 11, 2007, attacks and the explosion the day before the elections, social concerns still dominated the polls. One of the most pressing issues Algerians face is unemployment.
• Almost 75 percent of people under 30 years old are unemployed. The national unemployment rate has reached 12.5 percent.
Many Algerians cannot find adequate housing, especially in rural areas. The government pledged to build one million new homes by 2009, but most Algerians argue that they need a more immediate remedy . Services such as transportation, electricity, and hospitals all need major improvements, especially in remote countryside areas.
Many Algerians are concerned about the government’s inability to effectively explain how approximately US $80 billion in foreign exchange reserves has been utilized.
• Algeria’s economy grew 4 percent in GDP last year, thanks to oil and gas exports, mainly to Europe.
The government plans to spend US $140 billon to build schools, roads, hospitals, and railways in the next five years. As a result, many Algerians are becoming increasingly skeptical about their government’s political agenda.
Potential for Merging Concerns
If the socioeconomic conditions in Algeria do not improve in the near to mid-term, there is an increasing chance that a large number of young, frustrated unemployed males may become radicalized and seek social change and revenge against the government by affiliating with terrorist groups such as the AOIM.
We are concerned about the implications of such a development on Algeria and its neighboring countries. If social conditions in Algeria remain unchanged for long, we will likely see an increase in recruitment and membership levels among various radical Islamist terror groups based in the region.
