In accordance with a peace agreement reached on March 4, 2007 (Previous Report), militia groups in Cote d’Ivoire have begun to disarm. In a largely symbolic ceremony on May 19, 2007, approximately 1,000 weapons were handed over by militia members to Cote d’Ivoire President Laurent Gbagbo. Though most weapons were older models and in poor condition, and payment was promised for each weapon turned in, these acts are being viewed as a forward step in the overall peace process.
United Nations (UN) peacekeepers, who have been involved in most aspects of the peace agreement will secure the weapons turned in by militia members to ensure they are not placed back into the hands of either militia or rebel groups. New Forces rebels have maintained that they would not turn in their weapons until the militias had disarmed. The UN has played a critical role in the disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) needed in implementing the peace process.
Peace agreements have been reached a number of times before, however most efforts quickly deteriorated with renewed violence. Although several hurdles remain before the country can be declared stable, the achievements of the past few months are noteworthy.
Steps Forward in Peace Efforts
Cote d’Ivoire had been involved in a civil war since September 2002. The civil war split the country between the rebel-held north and the government controlled south, with French and UN troops patrolling a buffer zone. A previous cease-fire and power sharing deal reached in May 2003 was dissolved when both sides perpetrated acts of violence.
Disbanding the militias has been a major concern in the current peace process due to the previous false starts. With arms actually being turned in, there is renewed hope that peace could be lasting this time around. However, UN observers monitoring the peace process believe that not all fighters will relinquish their weapons, and this could impact the positive steps being made, and any future positive actions such as elections and the implementation of a judicial process.
This concern is well founded, as tensions between the two sides still exist. For instance, when President Gbagbo declared, “the war is over” in April 2007, an increase in violence was observed several days later.
Current Milestones Achieved
Although the threat of ongoing violence is very real, disarmament is a critical step in dissipating the tensions. To achieve a stable political environment, additional steps are needed. In that effort, several other important milestones have also been reached, including
• Removal of a UN-patrolled barrier zone that was in place to separate troops loyal to President Gbagbo and the New Forces rebel group.
Although removal of the barrier has begun, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has recommended that United Nations Operation in Cote d’Ivoire (UNOCI) forces not be allowed to reduce troop numbers as of yet. Secretary Ban believes UN troops are still needed pending the successful implementation of a “green line,” which will replace the previous buffer zone per details of the March 2007 peace agreement.
• New Forces rebel chief Guillaume Soro was named as prime minister
Although Soro has been named as prime minister of Cote d’Ivoire concern lingers regarding the future roles that both Soro and President Gbagbo will play in Cote d’Ivoire. As part of the pact agreed to by Soro and Gbagbo, Soro will not be allowed to run for office when future elections occur.
• An integrated command center has been implemented and President Gbagbo has issued amnesty for national security-related crimes, excluding war crimes, crimes against humanity and economic crimes that were committed between September 2000 and the March 4, 2007 peace agreement.
Although amnesty is viewed as positive, the actual granting of amnesty has not been broadly applied to date. Instability may occur if equality is not achieved in the overall implementation of the amnesty program.
Future Concerns
Lasting peace in Cote d’Ivoire is dependent on a peaceful government transition. Although positive steps have been undertaken in the two months since the March 2007 peace agreement was reached, any future success will be dependent on implementation of government elections, the redeployment of State authority and the rule of law.
• The UN Security Council granted President Gbagbo an extension of his transitional government in November 2006. This extension was to be limited to a one-year term.
Disarmament of militia members is a necessary preliminary step to establish peace. However, the situation remains tenuous at best. Until rebel forces also disarm, the situation in Cote d’Ivoire will remain unstable.
Establishment of elections dates will be the next big test for the country, as fighting may renew if either side is limited in putting forth viable candidates for office. Although mandated as part of the peace process, scheduling of elections has not occurred.
We believe the probability for renewed violence will increase as decisions regarding the election process are made.
