Nearly one year after Oaxaca City residents, business owners and merchants witnessed the dissolution of public order through acts of violent street protests and heavy handed Mexican government security responses, the city is again bracing for a new outbreak of protests that could ify the city’s economic regeneration in the near-term (Previous Report).
Past Unrest Hurt Economy
Following the 2006 civil and political protests and riots, Oaxaca state experienced a severe drop in economic revenue due to tourism sector declines (Previous Report). State officials recorded a 59 percent decline in visitors to Oaxaca City in 2006 compared to 2005. Only 12 percent of hotels reported full occupancies, compared to the typical rate of 40 percent. Secondary economic repercussion from the state’s decline in tourism impacted hotel and motel workers, with an estimated 1,000 workers terminated during the rioting. Restaurants, merchants and government employees all experienced a similar drop in economic revenue, eliminating most financial incentive to remain in Oaxaca City. Many employees in the services sector migrated to the US or other popular Mexican tourist locales such as Pueblo.
During the five months of protests and violence, nine people, including one American citizen, were killed. An estimated US $440 million was lost in revenue from Oaxaca’s formerly thriving tourist industry. And roughly 1.3 million local school children lost 100 days of classes.
The state relies on tourism for 80 percent of its state budget and has aggressively conducted a US-based marketing campaign to attract US tourists, boosting state promotions in 2007 by 33 percent. The effect is evident, as tourists have begun returning to Oaxaca City, ignoring the potential for renewed street protests. However, should scheduled May and June 2007 protests bear any resemblance to 2006 protests and riots, the Oaxaca City tourism sector may suffer damages beyond repair.
Underlying Drivers for Civil Disobedience
The 2006 protests and riots were an amalgam of teacher unions, leftists, anarchists and students from the Benito Juarez Autonomous University in Oaxaca – encompassed within the broad-based Popular Assembly of the Oaxacan People (APPO). The APPO continues to seek the resignation of Oaxaca state Governor Ulises Ruiz, whom they accuse of repression and election fraud. In addition to seeking the resignation of Governor Ruiz, the APPO champion the fight against larger socio-economic issues, including growing economic disparity and economic and social disenfranchisement (Previous Report).
APPO Condemns Calderon as PRI Lackey
After several months of relative dormancy following the forceful conclusion to the 2006 protests by federal troops, the APPO has again called for demonstrations to condemn Governor Ruiz, as well as Mexican President Felipe Calderon, who has publicly supported the continued governing of Ruiz.
Calderon’s public endorsement of Ruiz is a tactical political move designed to secure the support of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), of which Ruiz is a senior party member. Calderon’s National Action Party (PAN) lacks a majority within the Mexican Congress and requires a governing coalition to pass legislation.
APPO Protests Scheduled
Both the state and federal governments are proceeding cautiously with scheduled APPO and teacher union protests on May 15 and June 14, seeking to avoid a reoccurrence of the destructive protests of 2006. Moreover any violent or publicly embarrassing response by the state and federal government against protestors could deter undecided and “soft” voters from supporting the PRI and the PAN in this year’s municipal and state elections.
Although recent El Universal polling gives Calderon a 68 percent approval rating – up 10 points since February – only 17 of the 68 points Calderon received in the poll were from people who strongly supported his performance. The remainder is considered a “soft” approval rating. Should Calderon’s government react harshly to Oaxaca City protests, Calderon could alienate a sizable percentage of his current low to middle income supporters.
Near-Term Potential for Violence
The scheduled May 15 teacher union rallies will likely remain peaceful, however, we are concerned that June 14 rallies, scheduled to mark the first anniversary of the 2006 police crackdown on Oaxaca City protests could turn violent.
Calderon’s government will encourage Governor Ruiz and local Oaxaca City security forces to react cautiously to APPO and teacher union protests, hoping to minimize forceful responses and potential violence. Calderon has given little indication as to whether federal troops will be deployed to deter violent protests.
Should Calderon dispatch federal troops, we anticipate heavy rioting and potentially deadly violence to occur as local unions, leftists and students resent the heavy handedness of federal troops during the 2006 protest.
