After months of discussion and debate over the proposed deployment of a U.S. interceptor missile system in Europe, it would appear that Russia has finally drawn a line in the sand in an effort to derail the proposed US deployment. During his annual address to Parliament, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Russia’s suspension of compliance with the 1990 Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE). Despite the escalation of high-level diplomatic dialogue with Russia, most recently culminating in a trip by US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates to Moscow, Moscow’s increasingly aggressive tone made Putin’s announcement hardly a surprise. Russia is flexing its diplomatic muscle by holding one arms control treaty hostage as leverage to counter US aspirations for the interceptor missile sites in Europe. In addition to the suspension of the CFE Treaty, Russia has also hinted at revisiting the INF Treaty, as well as developing new systems to counter the interceptor program. The US, Russia, and Europe all have different interpretations and issues with this proposed system.
Perspectives on the Missile Intercept Issue
The US Position
The United States believes that rogue regimes like Iran and North Korea may have the capability to launch nuclear missile strikes against the US and Europe in the future. Having interceptor sites placed in Europe, specifically with components of the system placed in Poland and the Czech Republic would give the US the ability to shoot down these missiles before they could inflict damage. While the US has been very clear while it is willing to talk to both Russia and NATO, the decision to deploy this system only really involves the US and the countries where components are to be placed. While the US also discounts assertions that such a system will affect the balance of power in the region and lead to a destabilizing new arms race. The US maintains that the system is too small to diminish Russia’s large nuclear deterrent and has repeatedly sought to reassure Russia that the system is not aimed against them.
Europe and NATO Reaction
While there is a great deal of confusion and caution over the proposed system in Europe, at the same time, countries like the Czech Republic and Poland are interested in hosting component sites. Other countries, such as the United Kingdom and the Ukraine have expressed interest in being involved in the program. Norway believes this system could cause a new arms race and members of the European Union do not want to be caught between the US and Russia on this issue. However, the EU does believe that every country has to decide for itself the position to take on the interceptor missiles issue. The German Defense Minister has stated that the latest developments in Iran’s nuclear ambitions reinforce the need for a missile shield, but the German government also strongly believes that more open dialogue on the issue is needed. The NATO Secretary General, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer believes that Iranian missiles could conceivably hit Europe.
A number of European countries and NATO are concerned that some southeastern “European” countries such as Turkey, Bulgaria, Greece and Romania are too close to Iran to make interception viable. The US has acknowledged this problem, but has suggested that these countries could be protected by a separate system that destroys the missiles in a terminal phase. This suggestion has not allayed fears, as these parties believe a two tiered system could be developed leaving some countries better protected than others.
Many in Europe are a long way from buy-in on this issue, and believe that the US is trying to exercise its foreign policy in European territory. There is also unease that this system may not work due to some performance flaws identified during testing, and the fact the system has not been certified as fully operational as yet. However, it also seems that a number of countries are at least willing to listen.
The Russian Position
Russia absolutely condemns the missile interceptor proposal. The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov believes the threat from Iran is overblown and there is no need for such a system. Boris Chetsov, the Chief of the Air Force Staff has claimed that the proposed system has the potential to destroy Russian strategic nuclear weapons in the initial leg of trajectory. Russia is highly suspicious about the US motivation for deploying such a system, and strongly believes that in some way this system is meant to weaken Russia. The underlying problem is also that Russia already feels a sense of encroachment with NATO and the European Union moving closer to its border. Having these interceptor components in nearby countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic only continues to fuel the unease. Even former President Mikhail Gorbachev has weighed in on the issues, publicly stating that this system is a ploy by the US to exert more dominance in Europe.
A New Cold War?
Russia has claimed they have no desire to return to a Cold War state of affairs. However, the country under the leadership of President Putin has steadily been reasserting itself as a power on the world stage in order to counterbalance the superpower status of the US and the rising power of other states. There was frustration with many arms control treaties in the past, and Russia may simply be trying to reassert its power by moving away from these treaties.
Portraying the US as an aggressor gives Russia the justification to unravel arms control agreements and commitments. President Putin has also accused the West of instigating trouble over the erosion of democratic values and rights in Russia in order to meddle in Russian affairs.
Whether or not they truly believe the interceptor system poses a threat does not matter, Russia will use this issue as evidence that the West, and particularly the US, intends to isolate, weaken and marginalize a new and emerging Russia. As a result, we believe Russia will continue to become more militant and bellicose as it reasserts itself on the international stage.
