In an April 17, 2007, online audiotape address, an individual claiming to be Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State of Iraq, claimed the group was manufacturing homemade rockets. The individual claimed that the rockets were the al-Quds-1 variety, capable of greater range and supported by a sophisticated guidance system. The veracity of the audio tape has yet to be established.
Rocket Capabilities
The al-Quds rocket is likely a weapon in the same family as the Katyusha or Qassam rocket series. While capable of causing moderate structural or equipment damage, these are comparatively primitive systems and highly unreliable. They are typically launched during indirect fire scenarios against enemy positions or fortifications where accuracy can be sacrificed. Most of these rockets consist of modified artillery shells with rudimentary guidance fins and a homemade or adapted firing stand. Ranging in size from approximately 80cm to 200cm in length, each rocket is capable of carrying a payload of no greater than 10kg, or, enough explosives to destroy a small family home.
Little Military Value but …
It is unlikely that Iraqi insurgents will be capable of fielding sophisticated rocketry as claimed in the audiotape. Although militants in Iraq are known to be an adaptive adversary, this level of technological sagacity would be unattainable without the routine access to supplies and manufacturing equipment required to produce and maintain these weapons. In light of recent revelations by Major General William Caldwell, chief spokesman and Deputy Chief of Staff for Strategic Effects for the multi-national force in Iraq, it is worth noting the possibility that Syria might be supplying insurgents with equipment parts or actual rockets. However, we do not believe such support to be logistically possible on an effective scale, since attention to border security has increased.
… Lot of Propaganda
Although the online statement was vague and lacked evidence confirming the presence of an al-Quds missile, the underlying motive for disseminating this audiotape is most likely to serve as a propaganda tool or fear tactic directed at US and allied soldiers. It is also possible that the Islamic State of Iraq released this audiotape to affect sympathizers and potential recruits with its technical sophistication. Because the description of the rocket is vague and the man’s voice is not immediately recognizable, we remain skeptical of the author’s claim.
In the near term, we estimate any substantial missile threat to be similar to the Qassam or Katyusha model described previously. However, as Hezbollah demonstrated during the 2006 Summer War with Israel, these unguided weapons systems can be used effectively against a technologically sophisticated adversary.