The recent crisis involving the Iranian government’s capture, detainment, and ultimate release of 15 British sailors (Previous Report) has hardened the positions of Iran and Western powers regarding the Iranian nuclear program. For Western powers, the event illustrated the reckless and provocative decision-making of Tehran. For Iran, the painless conclusion to the crisis demonstrated the degree it can push a Western power without consequence. The reinforcement of these assumptions as it pertains to the nuclear issue now governs policies seemingly bent on confrontation.
Europe Hardens Stance
Iran’s hostage taking and behavior during the crisis – airing continuous videos of coerced confessions – has brought closer the consensus European and US position. Namely, the clerical regime is irresponsible, dangerous and must not be allowed a nuclear weapons capability. Demonstrating its hardened position, the European Union (EU) passed a regulation implementing the second phase of United Nations (UN) sanctions that increases the list of targeted individuals and entities associated with the Iranian nuclear program, and approved a total arms embargo of Iran.
US Maintains Pressure
In the wake of the British hostage crisis, the US has maintained, if not accelerated its effort to create an anti-Iranian coalition in the Middle East. On his recent visit to the region, US Defense Secretary Gates discussed arms sales and military assistance for regional allies within the context of countering Iranian influence (source). Other US officials have contributed to a publicity campaign highlighting Iran’s unwanted interference, intimating Iran is supplying weapons to the Taliban in Afghanistan and Sunni militias in Iraq. While these are unconfirmed accusations – the Iranian marked weapons were more likely obtained on the black market or sold through third parties – the net aim is to rally regional and international condemnation of Iran. In turn, it is hoped such condemnation will strengthen the resolve of the international community to prevent an Iranian nuclear weapons program.
Emboldened Iran
The hard line leadership in Tehran interpreted the British hostage crisis as a victory; a well publicized humiliation of their colonial nemesis. Most important, the leadership has not observed any immediate, deleterious implications for their actions. Subsequent to releasing the sailors, Iran has moved forward with its nuclear program in defiance of the UN Security Council (UNSC). Iran has so far ignored the UNSC demand to cease uranium enrichment and Iranian President Ahmadinejad recently declared his country has attained an industrial nuclear power status. Though the latter claim is doubted by nuclear experts, Iran is determined to present their nuclear program as a fait accompli, and negotiate from that point forward. The model is likely North Korea, who recently agreed to shut down its nuclear reactor in exchange for a generous energy/aid package after publicly demonstrating a nuclear weapons capability.
An Alternate Lesson of the Crisis
Rather than entrenching a hard-line position, an analysis of the hostage crisis and negotiated resolution can still provide a strategic lesson for Western leaders dealing with Iran. As noted Iranian experts Vali Nasr and Ray Takeyh have written, the crisis demonstrated: “just as Iran will meet confrontation with confrontation, it will respond to what it perceives as flexibility with pragmatism” (source). This notion could shape a new strategic approach for the West that divides a relatively united Iranian front on the nuclear issue and bolsters the more moderate, pragmatic elements of the government.
