The Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), an insurgency umbrella group led by al Qaeda, claimed responsibility for the brazen suicide bombing on April 12, 2007, inside the Iraq Parliament building. Located within the well-defended International Zone, the attack killed one parliamentarian and wounded 22 others.
With the parliament attack, ISI sought the attention of three separate audiences: other Iraq Insurgency groups, the Iraqi people, and the American public. Understanding the potential impact of the attack on these target audiences is critical to understanding the intended purpose of the bombing.
Insurgency’s Internal Struggle
The parliament bombing served as a warning to the leadership of nationalist insurgency groups that have been exploring potential negotiations with the Iraqi government. ISI is keen to derail this tentative reconciliation process in which Sunni members of Parliament are serving as key interlocutors.
Some insurgency elements in Iraq are turning against al Qaeda for their brutal tactics – killing tribal and religious leaders opposed to their worldview – and nihilistic goal of pushing Iraq into all-out Sunni-Shiite civil war. Consequently, the ISI is battling Sunni tribal forces in Anbar province (Previous Report), and has recently engaged in reciprocal attacks in Baghdad against the 1920 Revolution Brigade and the Islamic Army in Iraq. In this context, the bombing was also a high profile demonstration of power; a recruiting event for the al Qaeda cause as intra-insurgency strife heightens.
Iraqi People
By attacking a vital institution of the Iraqi government, ISI is attempting to shake the Iraqi people’s confidence in that authority. Timing this attack during the newest security plan for Baghdad and within the fortress-like International Zone, is a signal for Iraqis to lose faith in the ability of the government to provide security, in the hopes that they will turn towards alternate means for security and protection, such as by their respective ethnic militias. Another desired outcome is that the situation could devolve into the vacuum of centralized authority that al Qaeda can exploit into a permanent presence in Iraq.
American Public
The recent increase in US troops to the Iraqi capital is designed to provide a level of physical security that will enable significant political progress among factions. Past propaganda from various insurgency groups demonstrates their close attention to the US political debate, new US initiatives, and Western press coverage. In that vein, the parliament bombing is a targeted effort to demoralize already flagging US support for the Baghdad ‘surge.’ The attack’s extensive coverage from the Western media, showing Iraqi lawmakers scrambling from the explosion, could help undermine the American public’s confidence in the success of that mission. Indeed, the timing of the attack – only days after US officials expressed some guarded optimism on the ‘surge’ effect – is reminiscent of the Vietnam War’s Tet Offensive; a telling historical example of the impact images and media coverage can have on US public opinion.
Trends
The parliament bombing highlights certain trends that are representative of the larger issues plaguing Iraq. First, four years after the invasion, Iraqi and US government officials must continue to operate within a highly defended, isolated area – the International Zone – to ensure their relative security in Baghdad.
Second, the International Zone itself reflects the tensions of Baghdad; it is increasingly compartmentalized and the majority of residences and offices are walled off and guarded by private security. Moreover, recent incidents in addition to the parliament bombing – increased accuracy of mortar attacks and the discovery of stashed suicide vests – indicate the relative security of the Zone is being compromised.
Finally, the sectarian feud affects most aspects of Iraqi society, including Parliament. Because of some wariness between each other and the central government, each parliamentarian travels with his own contingent of scarcely vetted, armed security inside the parliament building. Predictably, this scenario presents infiltration opportunities for external insurgency forces, and Iraqi officials now allege a bodyguard of a Sunni parliamentarian was involved in the recent attack.
