Recently, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a statement prohibiting US air carriers and commercial aircraft from flying at altitudes lower than 6,000 meters while in Somali airspace. This was announced after two planes transporting Ugandan peacekeepers near the Somali capitol, Mogadishu were allegedly hit by rocket propelled grenades (RPG’s) or a man-portable air-defense system (MANPADS). Of note, US and coalition forces in the Iraq-Afghanistan theatre have also suffered aircraft and personnel losses by similar attacks.
Typical Anti-Aircraft Equipment
The primary RPG of the Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia Conflicts has been, and continues to be, the RPG-7, a weapon known for its durability and for being relatively simple to acquire. The RPG-7 traditionally has a maximum effective range of approximately 1000 meters and is most useful in targeting lightly armored tanks and armored personnel carriers. As such, this weapon is most often used in an anti-aircraft capacity within ambushes against fixed and rotary wing aircraft during take offs or landings. RPG’s are notoriously inaccurate and usually leave the operator exposed after firing since the weapon’s back-blast and signature render cover and concealment nearly impossible.
We also have noted an increase in MANPADS awareness among jihadists during the past few months. The favored variety of MANPADS in theatre is the Soviet-made “Igla” system, due most likely to its accessibility. Also known by UN designation as the SA-18 Grouse, this weapon features infrared guidance systems, a maximum effective range of approximately 3500 meters, and a maximum velocity surpassing the speed of sound. Very detailed technical information has recently been published on prominent jihadist websites that includes firing procedures and tactical tradecraft for circumventing aircraft countermeasures. Increased accuracy and greater effective range make these weapons far more effective than RPG’s and allow for a higher survival rate among operators.
Forecast
To date, very few anti-aircraft attacks have proven successful against US or coalition aircraft while RPG’s continue to be far more prolific based on the relative availability of the weapon. We estimate that this trend will continue and that an increase in anti-aircraft attacks is unlikely due to overall procurement issues. It is important, however, to note both the increased focus on MANPADS by jihadists on the Internet, and the new online training manual replete with extensive data on how to operate these weapons. Continued coalition success in locating and neutralizing weapons caches and increased border protection will stymie a future influx of RPG’s and MANPADS.
Regarding recent FAA restrictions, guidelines for air travel in Somalia will offer some protection for aircraft against long-range attacks to an extent. Landing or taking off in target rich areas including Mogadishu, Baghdad, Kandahar, etc., however, will continue to render aircraft vulnerable to RPG attacks.