April 9, 2007, marked the fourth anniversary of the fall of Baghdad. To commemorate the anniversary, Moqtada Sadr, leader of the Mahdi Army , called his followers to demonstrate in the holy city of Najaf against the US occupation. In his statement, Sadr identified the US as Iraq’s primary enemy and called for Iraqi unity, saying:
“My brothers in the Mahdi Army, and my brothers in the security services: enough fighting and rivalry, because that is only a success for our, and your, enemy. Infighting between brothers is not right, nor is it right to follow the dirty American sedition, or to defend . . . the occupier.”
The response to Sadr’s call to demonstrate was significant as hundreds of thousands of protestors descended on Najaf chanting, “Down with Bush, Down with American,” while burning American flags and littering the streets with leaflets that read, “Yes, yes to Iraq” and “Yes, yes to Moqtada. Occupiers should leave.” Salah al-Obaydi, a senior Mehdi Army official, deemed the three-hour rally a, “call for liberation.”
Sadr Back in the Spotlight
For the two months prior to his Sunday, April 8, 2007, statement calling for Monday’s demonstration – Sadr was silent. His silence was linked to his cooperation with Iraqi forces, and the February 14, 2007, implementation of the Baghdad Security Operation, which is aiming to create a security haven in Baghdad.
An Intel Report released on March 28, 2007, delineated our assessment of Sadr’s cooperation with the Baghdad Security Operation. The report identified two redlines in which Sadr will stop cooperating and reengage the US military: first, if the existence of the Mahdi Army is threatened and, second, if the agenda of the Sadr Movement is inhibited. Even in the face of yesterday’s protests, this assessment stands.
When Sadr spoke out against the US and called on Iraqis to cease their cooperation with American forces, he did not, however, order his followers to attack US forces directly. In fact, the peaceful demonstration was not unlike any other Sadr Movement rally. A staunch nationalist, the cleric has always spoken against the US military presence in Iraq and insisted that the Baghdad Security Operation be implemented by Iraqi forces, not US soldiers. Therefore, his statements against the US presence in Iraq do not equate disapproval of the principles of the security operation, nor that he will cease cooperating.
More likely, his call for an anti-occupation rally to mark the anniversary of the “Fall of Baghdad” was motivated by internal politics. Following Sadr’s decision to command his militia in Baghdad to stand-down, rumors circulated that he fled Iraq and was living in Qom and were followed by accusations that he had made a deal with the Americans and was becoming ‘soft’ (Real News). Concerns over his ability to command all of the movement’s radical militia factions followed, and were somewhat validated by the return of a Mahdi Army splinter group who conducted operations against US troops. By appealing to Iraqi Shias to unite against their common enemy (the US), Sadr is attempting to counter accusations that he has allied with the US. The rally following his request for a demonstration is a sign for those who would say he is losing favor among the populace.
Sadr, Upholding His Word
Sadr will uphold his side of the bargain as long as the US and Iraqi government do the same. He proved his commitment to the Baghdad Security Operation in the preceding months and there are no indications that Sadr will change his level of support as long as conditions remain favorable. The radical cleric must maintain his militant image in order to retain authority over his followers, so he will continue to speak out against the US military presence. Above all, Sadr desires the establishment of Iraqi authority and Shia prominence over all Iraqi territories and will take whatever route he determines to affect that outcome.
Therefore, as long as the existence of the Mahdi Army is not threatened and the agenda of the Sadr Movement is not inhibited, Sadr’s militia will suspend its military operations. His efforts to consolidate power, such as this week’s demonstration, will be employed toward political gain and peaceful negotiations.
