Ethiopia has been under pressure to release details on terrorists detained from 19 countries held at secret prisons in the country. The majority of detainees were rounded up by Ethiopian troops during their offensive in Somalia in early 2007 and by Kenyan authorities searching for terrorists in their border region. Although the detainees represent a mix of nationalities, it is still unclear where most of the al-Qaeda operatives are originating from. However, the majority of detainees held in Ethiopia are from North Africa, which confirms much of the dialogue communicated between al-Qaeda leaders and their counterparts in North Africa, namely the al-Qaeda Organization in the Islamic Maghreb (AOIM).
Fulfilling the Prophecy
At the outset of the war between the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and Somalia’s Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC) in January 2007, al-Qaeda’s number two in command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, released an audio message calling on Muslims from all over the world to “rise up and support their brothers in Somalia” (Previous Report). In response to the message, Abu Mussab Abd el-Wadoud, leader of the AOIM, formerly known at the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC), released a video message to al-Qaeda assuring the leadership that they are at their disposal and awaiting further instructions from Osama bin Laden (Previous Report). In the AOIM’s video, el-Wadoud vowed to support his fellow brothers in Somalia and encouraged other Muslims to do the same.
Although the number of al-Qaeda operatives detained in Ethiopia is unclear, it is not surprising that the majority of those detained are from North African countries. Unfortunately, this information confirms the effectiveness of jihadists’ use of the Internet. In the past, we have seen many propaganda videos calling for attacks against the “infidels” and rallying support among terrorist organizations in the Middle East and Africa. However, the outcome of those videos is becoming more and more clear as details on the detainees held in Ethiopia are released. According to recent media reprts, the detainees include at least one US citizen and additional detainees from Canada, Sweden and France. They also include citizens from Eritrea, Saudi Arabia, Tanzania, Rwanda, Tunisia and Morocco (source).
We believe that this trend, which indicates an influx of foreign fighters to the region will continue in the near to long term. As militants are arrested and/or killed, more will come to replace the missing fighters in Somalia.
Pressure on the Ethiopians
Ethiopia faces pressure from several countries, namely Canada, Sweden, and Eritrea, on the discovery of these prisons, which allegedly hold hundreds of detainees including women and children. It is presumed that most prisoners are being held without charge or access to lawyers and families (source). Uncovering these Ethiopian prisons has put an unwanted spotlight on the country and caused internal distress. Coupled with the recent increase in violence faced by Ethiopian troops fighting in Somalia – last month was the bloodiest and most brutal in Somalia since the 1990’s with Ethiopian and TFG troops dragged through the streets – Ethiopia is now finding its way in dealing with the fall out (Previous Report, Terrorist Incident).
When asked about the prisons, Ethiopia denied their existence along with the US’ questioning of the detainees.
The situation, however, is complicated since these prisons are housing some of the most seasoned terrorists and insurgents from the Somalia clashes. Releasing these detainees would likely result in their re-infiltration into the insurgency. On the other hand, Ethiopia’s patience is wearing thin as it is desperately, albeit slowly, seeking an avenue to escape the Somalia mission and is in no position to fend off outside allegations about its internal affairs.
Ethiopia has been known for past torture and abuse in its prisons and has, on numerous occasions, conducted activities that violate international law to acquire or satisfy its needs (Previous Report). Traditionally and primarily relying on US financial and logistical support for its actions, Ethiopia has been put between the proverbial ‘rock and a hard place’ on this issue. CIA and FBI officials have acknowledged questioning prisoners in Ethiopia, however these agencies played no role in the arrests, transport, or deportation of the detainees (source).
Same Old, Same Old
Even though Ethiopia is facing international criticism, it is unlikely that it will choose an alternate route to detaining the terrorists in Somalia in the near term. Ethiopia’s prisons have provided a valuable look at the composition of these terrorists. We believe North African fighters and other known al-Qaeda operatives will continue to participate in the jihad in Somalia. Ethiopia is likely to exhaust all known remedies in rounding up former insurgents and more importantly, al-Qaeda fighters in Somalia.
