Two Delegations, No Unity
Unable to resolve their differences, Lebanon’s cabinet and its President sent separate delegations to represent the country at the Arab Summit on March 27 and 28, 2007. A decades old split has grown farther apart in the last two years following the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiik Hariri . The two factions include the “March 14 Coalition,” which took power following anti-government protest in the wake of Hariri’s death, and the pro-Syrian opposition. Both seem incapable of reaching a compromise .
Saudi Arabia’s enhanced role in Middle Eastern diplomacy and general Arab acceptance of Saudi’s 2002 Peace Initiative, as well as Saudi’s King Abdullah and Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad reengagement in dialogue, were signs of hope that an end to Lebanon’s political crisis was within reach. Though al-Assad reconciled with Saudi King Abdullah and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak at the Arab Summit, his reconciliation with the region’s two most powerful negotiators did not result in moderation on his part.
Al-Assad maintains that the Lebanese opposition (Hezbollah , Amal, and the Free Patriotic Movement) should have veto power in the Lebanese cabinet and that the Hariri Tribunal not prosecute Syrian citizens . Saudi Arabia proved instrumental in engineering a stand-down of Hezbollah sponsored protests and shutdowns, and still remains hopeful that future negotiations with Syria will yield compromise.
Throughout the summit, the March 14 and the pro-Syrian coalitions lobbied for political and financial backing. Both sides won small victories during the conference as they battled over the phrasing of the Summit’s Lebanese resolution. None of that mattered, however. When the two sides returned Parliamentary Speaker, Nabih Berri, refused to convene Parliament.
Despite the absence of Nabih Berri, the March 14 Coalition is planning to convene parliament in order to pass a draft of the international court law, which will bring suspects to trial for the assassination of former Prime Minister Hariri. The group is lobbying the United Nations (UN) to pass a UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution under Chapter 7; backing Lebanon’s right to subpoena Syrian defendants. The opposition is fighting to block the passage of such a resolution and is calling the March 14 Coalition’s efforts to convene parliament without a speaker unconstitutional.
The Way Forward
Forced to withdraw from Lebanon on April 27, 2005 yet still maintaining significant influence on the government’s political system, Syria holds the key to Lebanon’s political stability. Implication of several top Syrian officials in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiik Hariri has prolonged Lebanon’s political standoff. For Syria, holding an international tribunal into Hariri’s death is a redline. Syria will not permit its nationals to face trial. For the March 14 Coalition and the US, however, finding Hariris’ killers is a top priority.
Saudi Arabia, having reopened negotiations with Syria, hopes that future discussions will yield Syrian concessions. The question is, on what issues is Syria willing to compromise?
If the Saudi Peace Initiative is moderately successful, however, a modicum of these demands may be reached. But what about the tribunal? If the March 14 Coalition manages to hold parliament, either in Berri’s absence or as a consequence of his resignation, and pass draft international court legislation, the most Lebanon can hope for is to try implicated Syrian officials in absentia. Syria will not extradite its officials and the UN cannot leverage Syria in the face of tension with Iran and regional instability.
Hezbollah, however, threatened on Monday, April 2, 2007, that the March 14 Coalition’s convening of a session outside of Parliament would be a “leap into the unknown” and a “provocation for further escalation.” Therefore, in the event that the March 14 Coalition moves forward with its insistence on passing the draft law, Lebanon will face further demonstrations and strikes, if not armed conflict. The response of Hezbollah will only be mitigated by a possible Israeli concession of the Golan Heights to Syria…an unlikely event.
