Despite a clumsy start, authorities in Tbilisi appear set to begin the trial of a dozen political oppositionists arrested in September 2006 and charged with—among other things—plotting the armed overthrow the government. The coup plot allegedly was orchestrated by former Georgian minister of state security Igor Giorgadze, and had the support of the Russian security services.
Georgian police arrested nearly 30 last September in a large-scale roundup of Giorgadze supporters. During the raids, police discovered weapons in the cellar of the home of one of those supporters along with $50,000.
Thus far, the run-up to the trial has been marked by confusion over procedural issues such as bail, court-dates, and other legal wrangling. Commencing next week, however, the trial appears set to start. The twelve oppositions—members of the pro-Russian Justice Party and the Conservative Monarchists—claim they’re innocent and have been languishing in jail for several months.
Several US lawyers are part of the defense team for some of those arrested; and claim the evidence is thin at best. Media reporting, however, has all but written off the oppositionists based on Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili’s ongoing fear of external and internal threat to his government.
Plots Real and Imagined
Saakashvili’s got reason to be worried. Russian President Putin is feeling muscular these days, and recently spiked the price of energy flowing to neighboring Georgia–Russia’s largest trading partner—after Georgia charged four Russian officers with espionage.
Defiant but alarmed, Georgia subsequently signed a deal with neighboring Azerbaijan to supply 80 percent of its energy needs and inked agreements with Turkey and Azerbaijan to build a railroad and oil and gas pipelines to connect Europe with Central Asia via a route that avoids Russia. Georgia’s also working to firm up ties with Washington DC, and recently discussed increasing the number of its nearly 1000 troops currently serving alongside US forces in Iraq.
While the Russian government clearly is not afraid to turn the screws on Tblisi, its unclear, however, whether the alleged coup plotters were actually willing and able to use armed force to overthrow the current government. Oppositionists—especially those somehow tied to Russia—enjoy little popular support in Georgia. The murky presence of former Georgian State Security chief Giogadze, a convenient boogey-man, also make the plot more menacing in the mind of average folk than it likely was in realty.
Regardless, despite its ties to the west and efforts at political reform, its clear Georgian authorities aren’t above holding a Russian-flavored show-trial. In this cases, there’s little doubt some of the allegedly plotters will be found guilt – a convenient example for future coup plotters to ponder.
Despite Putin’s shadows and its mixed performance on rule of law, Georgia will likely continue to chart its own course and improve. Once the economic engine of Russia, the Georgian economy nearly collapsed in the early 1990s following the breakup of the former Soviet Union. Due to a series of server economic measures, including the introduction of a 12 percent flax tax that put Georgian GDP growth at an estimated 6.5 percent in 2006, the Georgian economy is transforming and rebounding. In fact, the World Bank recognized Georgia as the world’s fastest-reforming economy in its 2007 Doing Business report, ranking it as the world’s 37th easiest place to do business, in the same league as countries such as France, Slovakia, and Spain. The World Bank’s Anti-Corruption in Transition 3 report placed Georgia among the countries showing the most dramatic improvement in the struggle against corruption, due to implementation of a strong program of economic and institutional reform, and reported reductions in the burden of bribes paid by firms in the course of doing business.
Some good economic news is cold comfort for those going on trail next week, and likely annoys some in Moscow. In the interim, expect Georgia to continue to seek out coup plots as its also seeks out new trading partners and closer ties to the U.S. and west.