Background
Rafael Correa, a leftist economist and comrade of Venezuela’s anti-US leader Hugo Chavez, promised swift and radical changes after he was sworn in as Ecuador’s president on January 15, 2007. His plans lifted the hopes of Ecuador’s poverty-stricken populace but stirred worries that he sought to govern arbitrarily. Correa won Ecuador’s November election runoff as a charismatic outsider who pledged to lead a “citizens’ revolution” against a political establishment widely seen as corrupt and inept. Correa stated his first act as president would be to call a national referendum on a special assembly to rewrite the constitution; something he said is vital to limiting the power of the traditional parties that he blames for the country’s problems. Soon after his inauguration Corea carried out his promise. Since that time however, Correa has faced political turmoil that continues to shift hour-to-hour.
Political Crisis
The protests began on January 31, 2007, as political backers of President Correa, stormed a session of Congress, accusing opposition politicians of blocking proposed reforms. Police fired teargas at the protesters who wielded sticks and bottles as they briefly managed to infiltrate the congressional building. While President Correa accused Congress of failing the people and only acting in the interests of the business elite, opposition leaders in Congress argued that Correa’s restructurings were unconstitutional and that he was simply emulating similar radical measures being implemented in Venezuela and Bolivia.
Despite the opposition’s pleas, however, on February 13, 2007, Ecuador’s Congress backed the call by Correa for a referendum that could lead to the country’s constitution being rewritten. The motion was passed in the 100-seat Congress by 57-1 as most opposition members walked out before the vote.
On March 6, 2007, Congress, with all opposition members in attendance, voted to oust the president of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) for backing the April 15, 2007, referendum. Soon after, the TSE responded by expelling fifty-seven of the single-chamber Congress’ 100 members after they signed the petition to start impeachment proceedings against the president and three other court members who voted for Correa’s version of the referendum. Correa’s referendum differs from the version Congress originally agreed to in that Correa’s version allows for the dissolving of Congress by the constituent assembly.
While the ousted lawmakers have tried to retake their seats, Congress has lacked the quorum needed to meet. On March 13, 2007, approximately twenty of the fired legislators clashed with police after forcing their way into the congressional building. Additionally, dozens of pro-Correa protesters gathered in front of the building, taunting the legislators. Two opposition legislators were injured during the protest.
By March 15, 2007, Correa’s efforts had received support on two fronts. First, Organization of American States Secretary-General José Miguel Insulza, said that the assembly was “a landmark” which would allow Ecuador to overcome the political instability of the last decade. Second, the Constitutional Tribunal threw out the lawsuit brought by five opposition legislators stating that the referendum approved by the TSE was “unconstitutional” because it awarded the constituent assembly plenipotentiary powers.
On March 19, 2007, Ecuador’s dismissed opposition lawmakers continued their vow to break a police barrier and reclaim their parliamentary seats. Opposition lawmakers refused to accept their dismissal and promised to barge through the police cordon to enter the March 20 legislative session. During this session, 21 alternate Ecuadorian congressmen replaced the dismissed 57-opposition legislators. These new congressmen were escorted into place by a police force comprised of almost 1,200 officers.
Correa Stays….For Now
A Cedatos-Gallop poll released on March 18th gave Correa a 69 percent popularity rating, compared with 71 percent last month, and 73 percent two days after his Jan. 15 inauguration. Correa’s high popularity ratings likely eliminate any near-term threat of popular mass overthrow. Additionally, a congressional plot to depose of Correa seems unlikely due to the potential popular backlash a coup d’etat could cause.
Although Correa downplays any potential threat of political violence against his government, the March 14, 2007, murder of Munir Farra Alvarado, a former mayor candidate in the coastal town of Guayaquil, could demonstrate increasing hostility towards Correa and his supporters. Alvarado was a staunch Correa supporter and a member of the indigenous Pachakutik party, which is allied to the government.
Ongoing political unrest will continue to spur protests. Such protests are a common occurrence in Ecuador and can potentially turn violent. Historically, civil protests have produced changes in Ecuador’s political establishment, however TRC does not anticipate a similar outcome due to Correa’s popularity among the masses. The discharged legislators will continue their efforts to regain both their seats and power in Congress. Correa supporters will unquestionably counter-protest such actions making Ecuador’s capital, Quito, a hotspot for rallies, demonstrations, and potentially violence.