Singapore will likely face a persistent threat of ‘homegrown’ militants, or operatives that emerge from within the society they seek to attack, inspired to militancy by radical ideologies. The most likely threats will come from those militants radicalized by al Qaeda’s militant jihadist ideology and activities. Regional jihadist groups will also continue to pose a threat to Singapore. The city-state represents an alluring target for Islamist terrorists due to its following key factors:
• Singapore is a rich and densely populated environment of civilian infrastructure, government, economic, and commercial targets
• Western-leaning orientation
• Multicultural society
• Role as a major regional financial center
In response to the Islamist terrorism threat, Singapore has adopted as part of its overall counterterrorism strategies novel and promising counter-ideology initiatives to combat the very roots of Islamist homegrown militants.
Recently, Singapore’s Minister for Home Affairs, Wong Kan Seng, underscored the threat posed to the city-state by “self-radicalized individuals,” particularly through Internet websites espousing radical ideology. Wong said that Singapore’s Internal Security Department has, “investigated a few Singaporeans who had become attracted to terrorist and radical ideas purveyed in the mass media, particularly the Internet.” Specifically, Wong cited a recent case of a Muslim man investigated for being drawn to al Qaeda ideology and militancy because of information obtained via the web.
‘Homegrown’ Militants and al Qaeda’s Influence
The threat of homegrown militants in Singapore is part of a growing global threat of homegrown militancy spurred by the proliferation of extremist ideologies via the Internet and other global communication and travel mediums. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced within the context of al Qaeda’s global expansion and evolution. Since September 11th, al Qaeda has evolved in its global reach and organizational form from the more discrete terrorist vanguard and operational support network of al Qaeda’s earlier years.
Al Qaeda now embodies a morphing triple-layered global jihadist movement that consists of: (1) the al Qaeda nucleus of top leaders and operatives; (2) a collection of regional affiliate groups such as Jemaah Islamiya (JI); and (3) a global constellation of atomized homegrown and expeditionary groups and cells such as those that conducted the 2005 London train bombings .
The modern day al Qaeda network has expanded with viral dynamics around the world, driven by the spread of its ideology through the Internet and global media across borders and societies. Through this global transmission, the al Qaeda ideology is able to reach into communities around the world and radicalize individuals whose conditions or grievances make them susceptible to the empowering allure of jihadist militancy. Many of those radicalized develop into homegrown militants that are then strategically rallied and guided in jihadist militancy by al Qaeda’s ideology and leadership communiqués.
These homegrown cells may then operate at various degrees of autonomy and entrepreneurship vis-à-vis the al Qaeda core leadership. These operational relationships include homegrown cells that are strategically guided by al Qaeda ideology and leadership communiqués but operate autonomously from the core; entrepreneurial cells who seek out al Qaeda sanction, guidance, and support for their operations; and homegrown cells recruited and set in motion by an al Qaeda handler or adviser who may remain in the shadows while the cell conducts its operations.
The Internet is, arguably, the most incisive vehicle for the viral transmission of al Qaeda ideology and communiqués that cultivate the proliferation of homegrown cells. Further, the Internet is a critical tool for clandestine organization and communication between groups, and for operationally enhancing these groups by serving as an easily accessible global resource for militant ‘state-of-the-art’ tradecraft and weaponeering.
Forecast: Singapore Has a Novel Response
The global proliferation of al Qaeda’s militant jihadist ideology and its role in rallying ‘homegrown’ militants remains a profound threat to international security, and will likely persist as a threat to Singapore. Homegrown cells present a particularly potent terrorist actor, as their emergent nature and indigenous knowledge of the society they seek to operate in and attack enables the cell to better blend into its environment and evade local security agencies. In addition to homegrown militants, Singapore is also threatened by established regional al Qaeda affiliate groups in the form of JI and The Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG). Singapore has uncovered JI terrorist plots against the country in the past, and has arrested some of its operatives. However, Singapore will continue to be an attractive target for these jihadist groups due to its target rich environment.
As a novel element of its overall counterterrorism activities, Singapore has developed counter-ideology initiatives as a form of antivirus to blunt the virulent radicalizing effects of militant Islamist ideology among the Muslim community. These initiatives have included supporting online blogs that refute extremist ideology, instituting a program of religious counseling for arrested JI members, and developing teachings to counter the spread of JI in Singapore. Referring to this strategy, Home Affairs Minister Wong stated, “Taking the counter-ideology effort online is a significant direction since it is impractical to try to shut down all terrorist websites.” In these efforts Singapore is taking a promising approach to combat and prevent the growth of Islamist and al Qaeda-inspired militancy by attacking its ideological roots.
