Saturday’s, March 10, 2007 Baghdad conference brought together both regional and international players to discuss curbing violence and promoting reconstruction and national reconciliation within Iraq. Attendees included high-level representatives from the US, Iran, and Syria, as well as other members of the UN Security Council and the Arab League.
The Conference
The actual conference was less interesting than the political exchanges preceding it. Arguably, its most important impact was the recognition it afforded the Iraqi government. Though Prime Minister Maliki’s government has been deemed a puppet regime by its neighbors in the past, the attendance of prominent regional players was tacit recognition of the Iraqi government, and a much needed boost to the government’s legitimacy.
Discussion centered around the security deficit in Iraq, particularly in Baghdad. The US pointed its finger at Iran for arming militias and at Syria for allowing insurgents to cross its border freely. Both countries denied their guilt and called for a US withdrawal from Iraq.
A significant outcome of the sides meeting together is that they are now engaging one another in ongoing discussions. The 16 states present agreed to “fight terrorism and enhance security.” A second ministerial-level meeting is scheduled to take place in the following weeks and there is speculation that US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will meet with her Iranian counterpart sometime in April.
Forecast: Continuation of Talks Without Concessions
Though all sides are approaching dialogue cautiously, it is in the best interest of all to work together in Iraq. Dialogue between the US and Iran and the US and Syria, therefore, will continue in the context of conferences on Iraq, eventually branching out to encompass broader regional concerns in the near future. The US will continue to put pressure on Iran to discontinue arms shipments across Iraq’s southern border, as well as put pressure on Syria to secure its border to end the flow of insurgents.
Despite US efforts to restrict discourse to Iraq, Iran and Syria will refuse to make concessions without US compliance to at least some of their demands. Iran will demand that the US and Iraq guarantee Iran’s security in return for halting arms shipments and securing their border with Iraq. The US will only agree to such a demand if Iran discontinues its nuclear program and its efforts to foment violence in the region, particularly with regard to Hizballah and Hamas. Due to the lack of trust on either side for their negotiating partner, an agreement may not be reached in the near term.
Syria also seeks to expand the scope of its dialogue with the US. Its foremost demand is that the US postpone the Hariri tribunal indefinitely. Secondly, Syria will ask the US to pressure Israel to return the Golan Heights and withdraw Israeli armaments from its border. The US is unlikely to turn its back on Prime Minister Siniora and Lebanon’s fledgling March 14 coalition. The Bush administration has committed much of its time and effort to support and ensure the fragile stability of Siniora’s government. As for the Golan and Israeli encampments, the US does not have the authority or leverage to bring about such an outcome.
Iraq will search for common ground with its neighbors and leverage their universal goal to stop the outflow of refugees and the spillover of sectarian violence. The US will use every tool available to reach small comprises with Iran and Syria in order to slow the continual flow of insurgents and arms. An end to the violence in Iraq, however, will not come through its neighbors but rather through the will of the Iraqi people and the increased legitimacy of their government.