During a press conference March 10, 2007, French President Jacques Chirac announced his withdrawal from the 2007 France presidential election, citing a significant drop in popular support. Serving as president since 1995, Chirac’s departure from the political arena is sure to have a profound affect on the country’s national policies, as well as its often-controversial footprint in the international spectrum. This decision to leave the race will now clear the way for a fresh generation of policy makers.
Assessing the new comers, three presidential candidates stand out including, Nicolas Sarkozy, Segolene Royal, and Francois Bayrou – each of whom brings a unique platform and accompanying constituency with him/her. Whatever the outcome, April and May’s elections will guide the direction of French national politics and security, and perhaps more importantly, have a profound affect on its position in the world and its relationship with the United States.
The Candidates
With Chirac off the ballot, any one of three candidates could win the election. Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s current Interior Minister and the more seasoned of the three candidates, brings with him political experience and an emphasis on the “hard” issues. His experiences with the French economy, where unemployment rates have been high and economic growth has been slow, and his experience in international affairs, are appealing to many voters. As a member of Chirac’s political party, the Popular Movement Party, Sarkozy is expected to receive Chirac’s support. He currently holds the highest popularity at 28 percent of the vote.
Socialist Party candidate Segolene Royal is another presidential contender poised for victory. At the urging of her more vocal supporters, Royal has shortened her references to hard-left leaning policies and has since concentrated on more centrist values. Royal, applauded for her family-oriented view, espouses social justice-focused policies. Conversely, she often faces criticism for a lack of focus on economics and foreign policy. Despite infighting among campaign members, and trailing early against opponent Sarkozy, Royal has regained footing and is back in contention.
Once referred to as a third party spoiler, Francois Bayrou has positioned himself as a possible winner as well. Bayrou projects himself as a middle of the road candidate, and is overall less divisive than Royal or Sarkozy. Polling numbers suggest Bayrou may draw support from would-be Royal supporters.
Security Implications
France is likely to see significant change both internally and externally with a new leader in the presidential office. A new president-elect may affect France’s national security rather quickly. Specifically, if Sarkozy wins, there is significant concern disaffected Parisian youth will likely protest, bringing widespread riots to Paris streets.
If Royal wins election, there is significant concern the country may appear weak in the international arena. It is feared al-Qaeda, Basque Fatherland and Liberty (ETA), and others will take advantage of an inexperienced leader. Lately, international headlines have announced the threat posed by ETA to France. Specifically, early March 2007 news accounts detailed the judicial proceedings of five arrested ETA members and their call for attacks on France, which has historically been a “safe haven.” The group demands the establishment of a separate Basque homeland and if the demands are not met, retaliatory attacks in France are to begin. Shortly after the announcement, candidate Nicolas Sarkozy met with Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez to discuss solidarity and a joint approach to combat any terrorist actions promulgated by ETA in either Spain or France. Sarkozy is promising steady solidarity with Spain, stating France’s position will not waiver regardless of changes in its government.
It is difficult to predict what may happen should Bayrou win the election. Although he is not a new player in the French political scene, a win for him would certainly affect the political division in the country. As Bayrou has been called a tried and true centrist, he may have the ability to bring the country together, rather than drive it apart. Bayrou’s quick ascension in the race is an oddity, yet is also not an obscure occurrence. Bayrou also ran for president in 2002 and received 6.8 percent of the vote in the first round. Bayrou’s 2007 presidential campaign mainly appeals to the disaffected voters; as such Bayrou calls himself a healer.
Franco-U.S. Relations: Future Outlook
We believe the relationship between France and the United States will be affected no matter which candidate wins the election. It is important to note, that Sarkozy, has begun to scale down his previous criticism of alleged “arrogance” that prompted France’s anti-war position in the run-up to the war in Iraq. Sarkozy has stated that Chirac was correct to keep France out of the conflict. Sarkozy has also shown a pre-disposition to speak out against US foreign policy on a larger scale, in one instance citing his disagreement with Turkey’s bid to become a member of the European Union. It is likely upon his election tensions between the US and France may become more apparent as Sarkozy focuses his administration on French national issues. However, despite these clear differences in opinion and heated debate over international affairs, Sarkozy is claiming he would direct a change from the status quo. Specifically, Sarkozy has stated that France would be an ally to the US if he is elected, not an adversary.
