As forecast in these pages , the military has intervened in Bangladesh?s months-long political crisis and is working behind the scenes with the interim government to enact electoral reforms, pacify unrest with a security crackdown, and clean up the country?s political structure with an anti-corruption campaign. These moves will likely serve as a fulcrum point in the crisis and create near-term stability. If the army-backed government?s electoral reforms and anti-corruption efforts achieve incisive and lasting changes to Bangladesh?s political system, and an election schedule is pursued swiftly and in good faith, Bangladesh will be set on a righted course in the long-term.
The Military Makes its Move
With an oblique urging from the United Nations that threatened to strip the Bangladesh military of its lucrative and prestigious peacekeeping duties if it allowed disputed and biased elections to go ahead during the nation?s political crisis, the military is believed to have moved behind the scenes to force the resignation of President Iajuddin Ahmed, the cancellation of the elections, and the imposition of emergency rule. Shortly thereafter, a new interim president, Fakhruddin Ahmed, was ushered in.
Since then, key election commission officials?viewed by the protesting opposition parties as biased toward the outgoing Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) government–resigned, and the nation?s voter lists are in the process of being revised to purge fraudulent voter names. These reforms address the central grievances of the opposition parties?led by the Awami League (AL)–that the BNP had rigged elections before leaving office. The AL and its allied opposition parties had organized massive protests that paralyzed the capital and had threatened to boycott the elections if their electoral reform demands were not met. At least 35 people died in the unrest.
During this time, the military provided muscle for a security crackdown to pacify unrest. According to the Economist, at least 40,000 ?low-level gangsters and political thugs? have been arrested during the state of emergency. In addition, Ahmed has vowed to track down the leaders of outlawed Islamist groups blamed for a wave of bombings in 2005 . Five leaders of the jihadist Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB; Group Profile)?believed to have been behind the attacks–are scheduled to be executed on February 17. The sentence may provoke retaliatory terrorist attacks. In addition, Bangladesh police and the country?s elite Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) have conducted raids against suspected Islamist militants and seized huge quantities of explosives and bombs and arrested dozens.
With the army?s backing, the interim government has pursued an anti-corruption campaign against politicians and officials from the BNP and AL parties who have amassed fortunes from graft. The government mounted widespread roundups of high-profile graft suspects, arresting almost 100 politicians, including a dozen former ministers. Further, top officials at the country?s Anti-Corruption Commission were forced out, clearing the way for further reforms.
Forecast: Near Term Stability, But How Long Will the Military Stay?
Overall, the quiet military intervention and army-backed government?s security crackdown, anti-corruption campaign, and electoral reforms have stabilized the country and are achieving some much-needed housecleaning of the political system. While the intentions and actions of the military seem to be altruistic, a key uncertainty is how long military leaders believe they need to stay in power behind the scenes to finish the ?cleaning.? No election schedule has been set; observers believe elections are unlikely within the year so as to finish the electoral reforms and avoid the monsoon season. With a long history of military intervention, a protracted military intervention without a good faith effort on the part of the military to pursue an election schedule would result in democracy?s self-styled saviors becoming its assassins.
Thus, Bangladesh looks stable in the near-term, as the army-backed interim government imposes security and political reforms. The long-term security and stability forecast remains opaque and threatened by continuing political acrimony and wrangling between the rival BNP and AL over the nature and pace of electoral reforms and processes and with the potential of indefinite military rule.
