It has been over one-and-a-half months since Ethiopian and Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces took over the Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC, Group Profile) stronghold, Mogadishu, and the prospects for peace in war-torn Somalia do not look any more promising. Talks of deploying an African Union (AU) peace force have been ongoing since before the war broke out in December 2006 , but no troops have stepped foot inside the country. However, AU countries cannot be blamed; current and ongoing circumstances in Somalia have not been permissible for their deployment. SICC loyalists have carried out attacks on an almost daily basis against TFG and Ethiopian forces, and massive violent protests against ?foreign forces? effectively have deterred the peacekeeping mission. The international community is at odds over the numbers (logistical and financial) and the timing of deploying troops into Somalia, and at the rate in which the violence is increasing, it does not look like there will be a peace to keep anytime soon.
Just as Promised
Since January 5, 2007, when al-Qaeda?s second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, released a message to Islamists in Somalia and in surrounding countries to fight the ?enemy forces? in Somalia , former SICC loyalists have been carrying out guerrilla-style attacks against Ethiopian and TFG forces. The most recent incident occurred on February 11, when at least eight people were killed, and many others were wounded in grenade and mortar attacks that occurred within hours of each other . Violence continued on February 12, when five mortar bombs killed three people in northern Mogadishu . Day by day, the Islamists? attacks are mirroring Iraqi-style insurgent attacks, just as former SICC leaders had promised (Terror Web Watch).
SICC sympathizers also held an anti-AU peace force demonstration at the central Tarbuunka Square in a north Mogadishu neighborhood on February 9. Protesters burned the flags of countries that are part of the AU peacekeeping force planning on deploying troops within weeks. One protestor exclaimed through a loudspeaker: ?We are burning the flags of countries that fuel chaos in Somalia. They are America [Country Profile], Ethiopia [Country Profile], Kenya [Country Profile], Uganda [Country Profile], Nigeria [Country Profile], Malawi [Country Profile] and others? (site).
Internal Conflicts with the AU
The increase in violence has made AU countries nervous about committing their troops to what seems like a suicide mission in Somalia. Although Western and African diplomats are in favor of a speedy deployment of a peacekeeping force in Somalia, some African leaders are hesitant to deploy their troops under the present conditions. After a daylong meeting in Tanzania on February 9, only about 4,000 of the 8,000 troops were pledged for deployment. In Uganda?s case, President Yoweri Museveni has committed to send in his promised 1,800 troops with the long overdue approval of parliament. Uganda?s parliament has been ?studying the plans? of deployment for almost two months, and, on February 13, it finally approved 1,500 of 1,800 the President had requested. The vote was unanimous; however, the opposition party abstained from voting.
The financing of the AU peace force has been mostly generated from Western sources. The US government has pledged $40 million, the European Union 15 million Euros, and Britain $8 million to fund the AU mission; however, it will take more than deep pockets to calm the storms in Somalia.
Plan of ?Hope?
Somali President Abdullah Yusuf consented to calling a national reconciliation conference, which the US-led International Contact Group has supported. The Contact Group published a communiqu? stating: ?The Contact Group stresses that those who renounce violence and extremism and pledge to constructively engage in achieving a sustainable political settlement in Somalia should be included in this process.? In theory, the plan sounds prosperous and reasonable, but in this case, Somalia does not need fairness and reason as much as it needs hope. Even if the ICG and Yusuf manage to wield in warm bodies from moderate Islamists and powerful clans, they would still have to deal with extremist fighters pushing them two steps back for every one forward.
If there is to be any serious hope for peace in Somalia, Yusuf and his administration should downplay as much as possible the support of the US behind their operations or plans for peace. Given Washington?s two air strikes in southern Somalia, their active hunt for al-Qaeda operatives, and the Black Hawk Down incident in 1993 , the US has, and continues to, leave a foul taste in the mouths of Somalis. Peace in Somalia will rest on the US?s strength under-the-table and the TFG?s national forces and cooperation over-the-table.
