Subtle changes may be occurring in Cuba nearly six-months after ailing Cuban President Fidel Castro transferred power to his brother Raul, however, these changes will likely fall far short of the wide-ranging reforms demanded by the US government. In the December 6, 2006 War Report, TRC stated that while Cuba?s untapped market and significant growth potential are attractive to international and US-based investors, robust growth potential in the near-term is unlikely and Cuba?s economic and political transitions, if they occur, will occur slowly, over an indefinite period of time. Those predictions, now much more widely accepted, are likley, as Raul, and top Cuban officials have stressed their deep commitment to Cuba?s communist ideals.
Holding the Future of Cuba
On August 11, 2006, The Economist stated, ?the United States hopes that the only bastion of communism in the Americas might be toppled by people power,? however, such an outcome is unlikely. Since Fidel transferred power, Cuba has not experienced joyous street celebrations, outbreaks of violence, or calls to remake Cuba in the image of the US, as originally anticipated by the US and the Cuban-American exile population in Miami. The new leadership will, instead, be very reluctant to abandon policies closely associated with Fidel until sometime after his death and will not look to the US for political or economic assistance.
Raul Castro and his revolutionary officials hold the future of Cuba. Their dynamism will determine the future prospects of the country, with a potential scenario being a power struggle among the various officials. Due to Raul?s advanced age and health, as well as a perceived lack of legitimacy among certain segments of the Cuban government, divisions will emerge between the old guard that favor maintaining the economic and political status quo and the younger ?apparatchiks? that wish to pursue gradual economic and democratic liberalization. The ability of Raul to ease these internal tensions might depend on his ability to begin an economic transition toward the Chinese model of reform, appeasing both factions by continuing one-party rule in exchange for free-market liberalization of the economy.
The Chinese Model
Raul admires the Chinese model of economic development, which is designed to keep the Communist Party in power but scraps economic socialism for a highly regulated version of state capitalism. Such a transition can either be led by someone with unquestionable political legitimacy in the eyes of the regime, as was the case of Deng Xiaoping in China, or by a group of pragmatists after the death of the legitimate leader, as was the case with the Vietnamese pragmatists after the death of Le Duan in the mid-1980s. TRC believes Raul lacks the kind of legitimacy that Fidel holds. However, Raul and his leading officials are certainly pragmatic.
This pragmatism was demonstrated following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Following the demise of Cuba?s principal financial benefactor, US government officials predicted the quick demise of the Cuban regime. However, Raul?s push for economic reforms successfully alleviated the state?s immediate financial loss.
Today, with Raul?s armed forces functioning essentially as the island?s largest business conglomerate, and with Venezuelan ally, President Hugo Chavez shipping approximately 90,000 barrels of oil per day to Cuba, the government seems increasingly secure.
Cuba Forecast
TRC anticipates that Raul?s regime will begin to institute economic reforms within one to two years of Fidel?s death. TRC does not expect a power struggle to ensue that would split Cuba?s communist party in the near future. It is probable that Raul and his loyal government officials will draw-on China?s primary reforms taken in the 1970?s rather than the more widespread economic changes made through the 1990s. Private enterprise will likely begin to grow on a limited basis and with strict governmental oversight. All changes will be long-term and gradual and will be orchestrated by those whom Fidel has long mentored. At this time, it seems that despite the hopes of the US and others, there is no probable alternative to the regime that is currently in power in Cuba, and a Communist regime will likely continue to reign in the years following Fidel Castro?s death.
