After numerous delays and heightened tensions, it appears the United Nations has put forward a firm plan on Kosovo?s future. While the plan does not recommend immediate independence for Kosovo, the roadmap presented outlines a path to eventual independence. Kosovo has been a UN protectorate since 1999, although the territory is still a Serbian province. Kosovo?s status has left the province in limbo as a legal entity, with the majority Albanian population demanding independence from Serbia , and Serbia demanding that Kosovo be maintained within the territorial integrity of Serbia. TRC has long maintained that the decision on Kosovo?s final status would not be taken well by one of the parties involved. Finding a middle ground has been very difficult in this case and is a likely one of the contributing factors in delaying the UN plan. Martti Ahtisaari, the UN Envoy presenting the plan, is sensitive to both sides and is proceeding cautiously with to avoid inflaming tensions further.
The UN blueprint that was presented to the six-nation ?contact group? of the US , Great Britain , France , Germany , Italy and Russia relegates Kosovo to a supervised independent state status. Authority for the state would be transferred from the UN to a special representative of the international community. Kosovo will be able to have its national symbols such asa flag and anthem, army and constitution as well as potential membership rights in international organizations, all very representative of an independent state. However, the UN plan offers concessions to the minority Serbs living in the province and the Serbian government such as protecting Serbian religious sites, language and culture and providing local governmental autonomy in Serb dominated areas. These provisions were granted to protect the rights of the Serb minority in Kosovo. NATO and UN forces would also remain to help police the state and prevent any resumption of hostilities.
The plan is not final and both sides must be brought together for negotiations before a plan is sent to the UN Security Council (UNSC). The UNSC is currently divided between pro-independence blocs led by the US and anti-independence blocs led by Russia. The Serbian government has also pledged to cut off diplomatic ties to any country that recognized Kosovo?s independence. However, Serbia desperately needs the international community and such an action would prove counter-productive. While Serbia maintains close relations with the Russian government and welcomes Russian UNSC support, the Serbian government continues to seek European Union membership and will wish to avoid antagonizing EU states. Likewise the Russian government will begrudgingly abstain from a UNSC veto so long as UNSC members support eventual independence for South Ossetia and Abkhazia. However, this scenario seems unlikely to occur in the near-term.
Should Kosovo achieve full-independence, it seems unlikely the Serbian government will seek military confrontation with both NATO and UN troops to maintain Kosovo as a Serbian province. Large segments of the international community, led by the US and European Union member states will likely recognize Kosovo?s independence, while Russia and Serbia will firmly reject any decision to grant Kosovo full-independence status.
