Like this past year, 2007 promises to witness and increase in the volume, variety, and virulence of online threats. Online threats will increase because the ratio of risk versus reward has not changed. For example, it was recently announced that cyber criminals stole approximately US$1.2 million from the Swedish bank Nordea . To date, there have been no announcements of arrests or prosecutions in this case.
One the most prominent vectors of attack is phishing , which uses spam email to convince users to visit malicious web sites that are designed to install malware and steal valuable personal information. As a result of the combination of the annoyance of spam and the threat phishing, it has become common practice for Internet Service Providers (ISPs), software vendors, and email server administrators to block all inbound emails from dubious sources as well as requests for blacklisted web sites.
The increased volume, variety, and virulence of spam, phishing, and other online threats will force information technology security professional to embrace the increased use of blacklisting and thus will cause the early stages of the Internet?s fragmentation. The use of blacklisting as a response to online threats will combine with increased political wrangling over the future of Internet governance at the nation-state level and may, over time, lead to an further fragmentation of the ?global? Internet.
Who Administers the Internet?
The ongoing controversy over the US government?s control over the Internet erupted again in the fall of 2006 when the US extended its control over the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) for three more years. Many analysts believe that continued US control over ICANN and its associated management of the Internet Root Servers gives the US unilateral control over the Internet. According to Tim Wu, a Columbia University law professor who specializes in international law, ?as long as the root is controlled by the United States, there?s this psychological feeling that the United States owns the Internet.?
This perceived unilateral control might lead to resentment among the rest of the world. In fact, some argue that China?s decision to create three of its own top-level domains may be part of a strategy to create its own version of the Internet free from ICANN control. According to Michael Geist, an Internet Law Professor at the University of Ottawa, China could sever connections from the ICANN-controlled Internet and route traffic to a Chinese controlled system (source).
Net Censorship
There is ample evidence of the Internet?s increased fragmentation. Most notably, a number of nation-states have implemented aggressive content filtering regimes designed to censor content deemed as ?culturally? offensive. For example, both China and Iran have developed sophisticated and expansive countrywide content filters that prevent Chinese and Iranian citizens from accessing content deemed unacceptable by the governing political powers (WAR Report, WAR Report). The associated image, provided by the OpenNet Initiative, highlights the extent to which various nation-states have censored the Internet and created their own country-specific version of the Internet.
Conclusion
While there are definite indications that the ?global? Internet has begun to fragment, it will be nearly impossible to shatter the Internet into many country-specific networks. While nation-states can censor the Internet for many of its citizens, the use of standardized protocols makes it easy for knowledgeable users to create new connections and bridges to the ?global? Internet. However, not every Internet user has the knowledge required to circumvent blacklists and censorship; therefore, the fragmentation of the Internet for large portions of the world remains a very real possibility.
