Violent crime will continue to be a major problem throughout Central and South America. The Andean Region, specifically Colombia , Bolivia , and Peru continue to be threatened by drug trafficking organizations . Left-wing guerrilla groups (FARC; Group Profile) and paramilitary groups (Shining Path; Group Profile) are responsible for thousands of deaths in the region each year. Crime has exploded in northern South America and the Caribbean, as drug-trafficking networks extend their presence in the region, affecting places like Trinidad and Tobago , Jamaica , French Guinea , and even traditionally more peaceful spots like Barbados and St. Lucia . Being small, weak states, they face a significant challenge in combating transnational crime. Similarly, Mexican drug cartels? increased influence will likely bolster violent crime in Mexico . Crime in Brazil has reached very high levels . The Brazilian police and press report that the rate of crime continues to rise, especially in the major urban centers, mostly because of drug gangs that base themselves out of Sao Paolo (First Capital Command Group; Group Profile) and Rio de Janeiro (Red Command).
Issues in infrastructure development and political instability will likely lead to high crime rates in most Central American nations in the coming year. Honduras and Nicaragua , among the poorest countries in the hemisphere, are likely to be exemplars.
Kidnapping
In a number of countries, kidnapping for political and/or profit motives is widespread, and US personnel can, and do, fall victim. Over 50 percent of kidnappings throughout the world occur in Latin America and that percentage is not likely to decline in 2007. Colombia is considered the kidnap capital of the world, a title that likely will not change over the next year. Between the FARC and the National Liberation Army (ELN; Group Profile), hundreds of people are kidnapped each year. While most kidnappings are of local, wealthy individuals, expatriates of large corporations have also been targeted and held for prolonged periods of time. FARC activities are known to transcend borders, and kidnappings attributed to them have been reported in parts of Brazil and Peru. Venezuela , Ecuador , and Peru are also experiencing a rise in kidnappings, likely resulting from Colombia?s crackdown on the FARC. Mexico has the second highest number of kidnappings per year in the Americas. Some 60% of the kidnappings occur in the capital, Mexico City, and most take place after extensive surveillance. Mexico is also known for quicknappings, in which victims, usually wealthy citizens or foreigners are snatched for a short period of time and are forced to empty their ATM accounts before being let go.
Political Alienation and Protests
Political alienation is at a heightened state in many South and Central American countries, as elections in late 2006 saw anti-US leftist politicians elected in record numbers. These leaders present a continuing problem for US interests in Central and South America. With over three-quarters of South America?s 350 million people ruled by left-leaning presidents, all of whom have been elected in the last six years, a particularly hostile environment has developed in a region in which the US and South American policies are moving in opposite directions.
Protests are widespread and have become violent, as not all South and Central Americans are enthusiastic with the direction of their government. Expect this trend to continue throughout 2007 potentially creating hostile environment for US personnel throughout the region. Venezuela will continue to see an increased number of protests in the capital, Caracas, as President Hugo Chavez continues to nationalize industry and tries to pass ?enabling laws,? which would give him carte blanche to legislate without checks or balances. He may attempt to implement constitutional reforms that could eliminate presidential term limits. Bolivia, too, has seen a rise in protesting as President Evo Morales supporters have been staging demonstrations that have closed towns across the nation. US personnel are always at risk in regions where political protesting can turn quickly turn violent, especially in countries that consider themselves particularly anti-US such as the two cited above.
Vigilantism
South America has been tainted by tides of vigilantism; lynch mobs have taken to the streets after ordinary people felt that corruption in government and victimization by drug gangs were terrorizing their communities. Similarly, death squads roamed Peru, Guatemala , El Salvador , and Colombia to avenge murders and disappearances . The threat of vigilantism remains common from angry crowds that have lost faith in their law enforcement and judicial processes. While mostly stemming from domestic issues, vigilantism can serve a high risk to US personnel at political protests in the coming year where mobs can look to strike government officials and their associates.
Guatemala has had problems controlling vigilantism in some of the rural, isolated areas of the country. Citizen frustration with crime and a lack of appropriate judicial remedies has led to vigilantism, including lynching. Honduras has also had such incidents with extrajudicial killings increasing to combat gangs, which are now more prevalent in the nation. Sombra Negra or ?Black Shadow,? a group of vigilantes, mostly retired police officers and military personnel in El Salvador, whose sole duty is to cleanse the country of ?impure? social elements, have specifically been targeting the MS-13 gang , and have a reputation for being extremely violent, albeit successful in mitigating the problem. Vigilantism is most prevalent in places where people have lost faith in their civic institutions. Vigilantism is an organic method to fill a lacking law-and-order structure and can be remedied by creating legitimate, effective law enforcement entities that protect the rights of citizens.
