The most important security threats facing the US from Latin America are rooted in criminality and violence. 2007 will witness the consolidation of a trend that has been advancing in Latin America in past years: a transition from violence that is embedded in ideological-political factors to violence that is borne of criminality.
Central American Street Gangs
Central America?s ?Northern Triangle??consisting of Honduras , Guatemala , and Ecuador ?is home to some of the region?s highest homicide rates. These governments will continue to pursue their repressive ?mano dura? anti-gang laws, which are enforced by the police and military. Since these policies do little to address the socio-economic factors contributing to the growth of urban gangs, this repressive approach will likely invite violent and destructive reprisals by well-known gangs, whose influence in the region and in the US will continue to grow.
Tri-Border Area (TBA)
This lawless region?where the boundaries of Paraguay , Argentina , and Brazil converge?will continue serving as an important source of terrorist fundraising for groups such as Hezbollah . In 2007, the main challenge for the US will be overcoming obstacles to cooperation with the aforementioned countries. Last year, Brazil rejected US-imposed sanctions on terrorist groups in the region, and the three countries united in opposing the conclusions of a US report examining terrorist threats in the TBA. In the absence of US cooperation with these local governments, who lack the manpower and funds to target the region?s illicit economy, the TBA will continue to pose a threat to the US in 2007.
Narco-terrorism and Prison Gangs
In Colombia , a new phase of the government?s counter-insurgency campaign, ?Plan Victoria,? will target the leadership of the FARC and will continue aerial spraying of crops. It is probable this renewed threat to the FARC?s livelihood will provoke a violent response to Colombian and US armed forces in the region. US personnel?softer targets than the US military–may also be targeted by FARC for kidnapping. The potential for spillover and destabilization is likely to increase. Brazilian prison gangs, some of which have direct ties to the FARC, will continue to grow in strength. Emboldened by tactical successes and riots last year, these groups will persist in their assault on security forces and continue engaging in illicit activities. Growing ties between gangs and the FARC will increase their regional influence in 2007.
Mexican Drug Violence
As the Mexican government employs a more militarized approach to the country?s multi-front drug war, this will provoke more violence from the country?s most important cartels. While there have been initial successes resulting from the government?s new approach, these will likely be offset by cartels attempting to secure trafficking routes and strongholds in border towns; entrenched police corruption and impunity will continue as significant obstacles to effective counter-drug policies. Drug violence and kidnappings will likely persist. The probability that Mexico will witness violence similar to that seen in Colombia during the extradition wars of the 1990s is high, with serious implications for the security of America?s borders.
