On February 23, a Lebanese man was shot dead near Port Harcourt and two Italians were kidnapped in Ogoniland by militants in the Niger Delta . This incident is another example in a string of attacks in the Niger Delta targeting foreign workers in Nigeria. This uptick in deliberate violence was highly unusual (Previous Report), as local militants generally do not kill targets, opting to kidnap them as leverage against the Nigerian government, various state governments, and foreign oil firms or as financial reward through ransoms. Most kidnappings end peacefully.
That day, MEND vowed revenge in an email to AFP against Italian Agip and Bayelsa State government for the alleged escape of Imad Saliba, a Lebanese hostage taken on December 7 . Saliba’s escape marks the first time a MEND hostage has fled successfully. MEND promised Agip and the state government would “pay a hefty price for the slight” and that “our response to Agip and the oil industry will follow shortly” (source). Two Italians remain hostage, and talks of their release have now stopped until after May. The Italian Foreign Ministry has advised all nonessential workers to withdraw from the region. This outright threat, coupled with the State Department Warden Message (Advisory) or other pronouncements by embassies and geopolitical analyses, should prompt any extraction firm, and any firm linked to the extraction industry, remaining in the Niger Delta to raise security posture to the highest levels possible. In many parts of the Delta, such stringent policies have long been in place; security protocols should be heeded throughout the Delta.
Further, riot police were deployed into oil-rich Ogoniland to quell inter-tribal violence over land ownership issues that has resulted in numerous deaths since February 22 and significant property destruction. Violence was specific to Bodo and Mogho in Rivers State. Similar clashes took place in January but have flared up fairly regularly since 1993, when Shell oil was forced out of Ogoniland due to the persistent violence related to their extraction efforts. Stability was restored on February 24—at least temporarily.
MEND is the most vocal and active of the militant groups in Niger Delta that fights to right perceived slights and injustices to the local populations by foreign oil firms. The militant group tends to demand higher percentages of oil revenue to compensate locals for extraction efforts and frequently demands the release of jailed leaders (Previous Report). In 2007 alone, 57 foreigners—nearly as many in all of 2006–have been snatched in southern Nigeria.
April Elections
Nigeria’s presidential elections continue to approach amid controversy of corruption and voter intimidation. Rival political candidates are recruiting urban militias as strong-arms for their candidacy. This association is likely to result in votes cast for that politician, likely by fright and force, and key appointments or favor—especially pertaining to oil revenues–and financial reward to stock caches for those militias once the candidate is in power. Further, MEND’s hostages’ fates are also linked to the April vote: “As the 2007 election approaches, we are keenly watching and commit the government of Nigeria to conduct a free and fair election, for the people to be able to vote in candidates of their choice,” (source) according to a MEND email. Violence, which was also seen in the lead-up to the 2003 election, in this regard has already been reported throughout Nigeria’s south. The election is a watershed in that it will mark the first transition of civilian rule in Nigeria. Reuters Africa will be launched with the election, as they are widely seen as the single biggest event since Nelson Mandela’s election in South Africa in 1994. In the balance are Nigeria’s burgeoning democracy, Nigeria’s strategic importance, and Nigeria’s massive population in the region. Nigeria’s future will impact not only regional countries, but much of the rest of the world. As we have long anticipated (Previous Report), militant attacks should be anticipated in the lead-up to the vote.
Impact at Home
In the days following the Warden Message release, US crude oil rose to $59.39 per barrel. This rise disrupted production in US refineries as well. If history is an indicator, prices are likely to weaken based on the approaching summer and the current relatively mild winter and specifically Nigeria’s continued instability. Output in Nigeria remains 20 percent lower than typical based on MEND’s attacks in February 2006.